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Lots of tariff talk in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

Lots of tariff talk in this week’s Markets in a Minute!
July 6, 2018 Fred Kreger


For the Week Ending July 6, 2018

The Markets:

The threat of tariffs continues to weigh on the markets. Overall the indices for the week are down, however on Thursday the market rose despite that some tariffs may go into effect on Friday. The fear of price increases,
if and when the U.S. is hit with reciprocal tariffs from other countries, continues to weigh on the minds of investors.


Construction Spending:

Construction spending data continues to be volatile, and that is likely not to change anytime soon. The good news is that the spending trend is up, which is a positive sign for the economy. Construction spending
for May is 4.5% higher compared to a year ago. For the first five months of the year, it is 4.3% higher than the same period in 2017. Residential construction spending, meanwhile, was 0.8% higher in May following April’s strong increase.


Mortgage Application Index:

The Mortgage Bankers Association of America reported that overall loan application volume decreased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior week. Refinance applications decreased 2 percent, while
applications for purchases increased 1 percent.

Applications for refinances represent 37.2 percent of total applications. This is a slight decrease from the prior week’s 37.6 percent. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM’s) represent 6.7 percent of total applications.



Manufacturing continues to improve with the latest increase of 0.8 percentage points to 62.3%. New orders and employment for the sector were also quite strong in June, even thought it was slightly less than in May.
The actual numbers were that new orders declined to 63.5% from 63.7%, One of the challenges to manufacturing is that although supplier deliveries rose to a 14-year high, this could lead to more bottlenecks in deliveries, that could very well cause an increase
in inflation.


Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

• Monday July 9th – Consumer Credit
• Tuesday July 10th – JOLTS Report
• Wednesday July 11th – Producer Price Index, MBA Applications
• Thursday July 12th – First Time Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index
• Friday July 13th – Consumer Sentiment


As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.


Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.



Manufacturing activity surged in June, as companies accelerated production in advance of expected tariffs.
Stocks continue to suffer as concerns remain about the effect of tariffs on trading. Apprehension about a trade war isn’t helping mortgage rates much either.
The labor market appears to be near full strength, even as weekly jobless claims were up last week. The jobless rate is at an 18-year low of 3.8%.


Overall construction spending was up 4.5% year-over-year in June and 0.4% over May. For residential construction, spending was up 0.8%.
Single-family home construction spending was up 8.2% in June over the previous year. Multi-family housing spending was also up 4.2% year-over-year.
Millennials really do want to be homeowners. In a recent survey, 36% of the 500 respondents reported taking a second job to save for a down payment.

I used to be a mortgage banker, but then I lost interest.


Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.


Fred Kreger
American Family Funding
Certified Mortgage Consultant
NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
(661) 505-4311
28368 Constellation Road
Suite 398
Santa Clarita, CA


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