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  • The Last 2017 Markets in a Minute this Week!

     

     

    For the Week Ending December 29, 2017

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

    The Stock Market and Investing:

    The end of the year stock rally appears to be more subdued this year than in previous years. None the less, the stock market is finishing the year at, or very close to record highs. Anyone who has money in any type of 401K, IRA, Money Market, etc… has nothing to complain about this year. Unless the money manager running a fund was completely oblivious to the world, it would be impossible for any investor not to see the value of their portfolio rise sharply. More of the same is expected for the early part of 2018 barring on major national or international event that could spook the economy.

     

    The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller House Price Index:

    The home price increase in 2017 is one of the biggest stories for the economy. Even though the final numbers for the 2017 Case-Shiller HPI won’t be announced until February, the first 10 months of the year have been terrific. The year-on-year comparison from 2017 to 2016 shows prices are up 6.4 percent. This is the strongest gain in home values since July 2014. The most recent report shows the 20-city index with a healthy gain of 0.7 percent. This is the second month  in a row that all 20 cities showed a gain. Las Vegas led the way with a 1.4 percent rise, while San Francisco came in second with a 1.2 percent increase.

     

    Lack of home supply continues to be the central factor creating upward pressure on prices. With the continued growth in housing demand, home prices are likely to continue to rise in 2018.

     

    Pending Home Sales:

    There appears to be no clear explanation as to why the pending home sales index has been relatively flat, and not in line with the strength of existing home sales. Even though overall housing data has been strong heading into the end of the year, this index seems to be running at its own pace. Pending home sales rose only 0.2 percent in November. The one exception to the slow movement of this index was last month’s report of a sharp increase of 3.5 percent.

     

    The regional breakdown for October’s report is that there were small declines in the West and South. The Midwest rose slightly, and the Northeast rocketed higher by 4.1 percent. Nationally, the Northeast for most of the year, has had the largest available housing inventory. This could very easily be the explanation for the higher level of pending sales in this region versus other parts of the country.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday January 1st – New Years Day – All Markets Closed
    • Tuesday January 2nd – PMI Manufacturing Index
    • Wednesday January 3rd – MBA Mortgage Applications, Construction Spending, ISM Mfg Index
    • Thursday January 4th – First Time Jobless Claims, ADP Employment Report
    • Friday January 5th – Employment situation, Factory Orders

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,

    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

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  • The economy is booming in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending December 22, 2017
     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

    The Stock Market and Investing:

    The reality check has happened. Friday morning Bitcoin investors in the United States woke up to find that the value of the cryptocurrency tanked 18 percent overnight. This is the fourth consecutive day of losses
    for virtually all cryptocurrencies. The concerning part is that the latest runup on the electronic currencies was driven by a large portion of people purchasing using credit cards. With all the hype of the increased in values, not only traditional investors,
    but people who know nothing about the market jumped in to make purchases in an attempt to ride the wave.

     

    The Housing Market Index:

    New home sales surged back in the month of September. Builders are excited, and it is showing in the housing market index. The latest reading showed a much larger than expected 5 point jump in builder confidence.
    The big driver of the increase in confidence is the unexpected jump in buyer traffic. It appears that all of a sudden there is a flood of new buyers in the market. One possible explanation is that it may not be so much new buyers, buy possibly buyers who have
    given up trying to find a pre-existing home and are now deciding that new construction is the way to get into a home.

     

    Existing Home Sales:

    More great housing news comes from November’s existing home sales data. The latest numbers show a jump of 5.6 percent. This brings the annualized rate to 5.810 million, which is by far the strongest level of the
    current housing expansion.

    As expected, the jump in sales has eliminated even more inventory in the housing market. The housing supply in October was 3.9 months. This latest surge in purchases has brought the available supply down to only
    3.4 months. If demand continues, this will be a windfall for builders, as it is likely to create more upward pressure on home prices and demand for new construction.

     

    Housing starts:

    The trifecta of positive housing reports comes in the latest data on housing starts. In November builders increased construction by 3.3 percent. Additionally, single-family permit rose 1.4 percent, which is the most
    important component of this measurement. All-in-all, housing is very strong in the country.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday December 25th – Christmas Day – All Markets Closed
    • Tuesday December 26th – State Street Investor Confidence Index
    • Wednesday December 27th – MBA Mortgage Applications, Pending Home Sales, S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer Confidence
    • Thursday December 28th – First Time Jobless Claims

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way
    I possibly can.

     

     

    The final version of the tax reform plan has been approved by both chambers of Congress. President Trump should sign it into law on or before January 3rd.
    Third quarter economic growth estimates were lowered slightly from 3.3% to 3.2%. Even still, the economy grew at its fastest pace in more than 2 years.
    Despite a jump in the number of filings for unemployment benefits last week, the underlying trend in jobless claims remained consistent with a strong labor
    market.

     

    Existing home sales hit an 11-year high in November, despite tight inventory. They rose 3.8% on a year-over-year basis, rising for the 3rd straight month.
    New home starts were above expectations for November, at 1.297 million (annualized rate). Single-family housing units surged to a more than 10-yr high.
    Pointing to further future increases in inventory, single-family home permits rose 1.4% to 862,000. This is a level not seen since August 2007.

    Why does Scrooge love reindeer so much?
    Because every single buck is deer to him!

     

    Please note: We will not publish The Markets in a Minute during Christmas week. Hope your holiday is great, and we’ll see
    you in the new year.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

     

    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

    Read more
  • Fed raises policy rates but mortgage rates stay low in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending December 15, 2017

    The FOMC Meeting:

    As expected, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to raise the Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points, bringing the rate to a range of 1.25 to 1.50 percent. The board members voted 7-2 in favor of the interest rate
    increase. The two members who voted against the rate increase, do not seem to agree with the other members views on the likelihood of wage-push inflation due to the high levels of employment. The Fed has indicated that their current plan for 2018 is three
    more 25 basis point rate increases.

     

    The Stock Market:

    The stock market met the Fed announcement with little more than a yawn. There was nothing in the Fed message that was a surprise. For the last few months, the majority of investors and analysts have been expecting
    the rate increase, so the stock market was business as usual.

     

    Mortgage Rates and Loan Activity:

    Until this week, mortgage rates have been inching higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported for the week ending December 8th, applications for purchases declined 1.0 percent, and refinances dropped 3.0 percent.

    In what was a little bit of a surprise, bonds rallied after the Fed announcement on Wednesday of this week. The 10 Year Bond yield, which is a representation of mortgage rate movement, but not the basis for them,
    declined after the Fed announcement.

    The stock market declined on Thursday as did bond yields as investors placed more money into the bond market after digesting the Fed’s announcement. There is some investor sentiment that now exists in that the Fed’s
    plans for interest rate increases over the next year may slow economic growth.

     

    Housing:

    There is growing concern in regard to the future of the housing market. With all of the talk on the proposed tax reform and the lowering of the real estate tax deduction limit, concerns exist on how this could impact,
    and potentially hurt the housing market. We just have to wait and see what will be passed.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday December 18th – Housing Market Index
    • Tuesday December 19th – Housing Starts
    • Wednesday December 20th – MBA Mortgage Applications, Existing Home Sales
    • Thursday December 21st – First Time Jobless Claims. FHFA House Price Index
    • Friday December 22nd – New Home Sales, Durable Goods Orders

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Tax reform is moving forward. Lawmakers are currently reconciling the Senate and House versions. The GOP is trying to get it done before 2018.
    The Fed raised policy rates at this week’s meeting, as expected. The rate increase actually helps to keep mortgage rates low for the near term.
    The Fed is expected to raise rates 3 times in 2018, based on current forecasts. The policy rate increases could pressure mortgage rates higher for next year.

     

    Homebuilders that focus on entry-level housing are expected to flourish in 2018. A growing economy, solid job market, and low mortgage rates are driving demand.
    In its 2018 forecast, Realtor.com predicts home prices will go up 3.2% and sales will increase 2.5%. Inventory is also expected to rise.
    Mortgage rates remain low, and mortgage applications remain high. New purchase apps were 10% higher than a year ago this time.

    Sister: “What are you giving Mom and Dad for Christmas?”

    Brother: “A list of everything I want!”

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

     

    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

    Read more
  • Housing is on fire in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

    For the Week Ending December 1, 2017

    Stock Markets:

    Investor are loving the ever-increasing likelihood that the House and Senate are going to present a new tax plan for the President’s signature before the end of the year. The two biggest drivers of excitement in
    the markets are the plan to reduce the corporate tax rate from 35 percent down to 20%, and to allow companies to repatriate their offshore cash holdings at the lower tax rate. Simply put, this will be a tremendous financial windfall for corporations, and to
    investors alike.

     

    Many large national corporations have made promises to the White House that if this plan passes with the lower tax rate, they will invest a significant amount of money into corporate expansion. This in-turn will
    be great for the labor market and increasing wages, as employment demand will soar.

     

    As expected, the tax plan is divided down party lines. Most Republicans are for it, while there is not a single Democrat who will vote “yes” for the plan. Currently the House, Senate, and White House are all Republican
    controlled, which means that there is little that can be done to prevent the passage of tax reform if every elected Republican votes for it to be implemented.

     

    Mortgage Loan Limit Changes:

    This week Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and HUD, all announced they are raising their loan limits based on the data showing average home prices increasing around the country. Depending on where a property is located determines
    how much, if any, the loan limits have been increased.

     

    Home Prices:

    On Tuesday both the Federal Housing Finance Agency and Case-Shiller released their latest data on home prices. The FHFA Index showed that home prices continued to rise in September at the rate of 0.3 percent. Home
    prices compared to the same time last year are higher by 6.3 percent.

     

    The Corelogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed similar findings. This index showed home prices up 0.5 percent, and an increase of 6.2 percent from the prior year.

    Both reports show considerable strength in housing. Mortgage application activity for home purchases has remained stable. Refinance applications have declined 8.0 percent with the rise in mortgage rates.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday November 27th – New Home Sales
    • Tuesday November 28th – FHFA House Price Index, Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
    • Wednesday November 29th – MBA Mortgage Applications, Pending Home Sales
    • Thursday November 30th – First Time Jobless Claims
    • Friday December 1st – ISM Manufacturing Survey, Construction Spending

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way
    I possibly can.Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Third quarter GDP numbers showed the economy grew by 3.3%, in line with expectations. This was the quickest pace of growth in 3 years.
    The likelihood of tax reform being signed into law by the end of the year is increasing. The tax reform is expected to spur economic growth for 2018.
    The Fed is expected to raise policy rates this month, but that shouldn’t have much effect on mortgage rates. Markets have already anticipated the rate hike.

     

    New home sales in October unexpectedly rose to the highest level in a decade. Single-family home sales rose 6.2% over September, the highest since October
    2007.
    Home prices rose in September 6.2% over last year and are expected to continue to increase. Prices are rising at the fastest annual rate since June 2014.
    Pending home sales jumped 3.5% in October. Led by the hurricane stricken South, the growth was more than double what was expected.

    What happens to a frog’s car when it breaks down?

    It gets toad away.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,

    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

    Read more
  • Strong housing and a growing economy in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending November 17, 2017

    Stock Markets:

    In what has seemed like forever that elected officials have talked about revamping the outdated and often considered absurd tax code, change may finally be coming. On Thursday House Republicans passed their version
    of the tax code revisions. By no means does this represent that the tax code will change, however it is a big first step, and a milestone in the road to change. There are many more steps to the tax code being changed, that had eluded Congress for decades.
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared almost 200 points on this news. The other major indices were up significantly as well.

     

    Housing Market Index:

    Home builders are reporting that they are seeing an increase in activity. In fact, builders are saying that this is the best market since March. Current and future sales are coming in at a very strong level of 77.
    Traffic to home building sites is also up by 2 points for the best reading since May. It is uncommon for this time of year to see significant increases in activity, so this is welcome news for the housing market.

     

    Mortgage Rates and Applications:

    Purchase applications rose 0.4 percent for the week ending November 10th. Refinance applications, despite mortgage rates remaining relatively flat, rose 6.0 percent for the week. What is exciting in the latest report
    is that purchase applications are 17.0 percent higher than the same time last year. The strong year-on-year gain of purchase applications points to future strength in underlying home sales.

     

    Inflation:

    On the wholesale level, pressure for price increases showed signs of life for the month of October. The Producer Price Index rose by a larger than expected 0.4 percent. Even when you remove volatile food and energy
    prices, wholesale inflation remained at 0.4 percent.

    On the retail end, unfortunately the story was not the same. Consumer prices for October were up slightly by 0.1 percent. The year-on-year rate was actually down by 2 tenths of a percent. The core rate of inflation
    was up only 0.2 percent when food and energy prices were removed from the calculation.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday November 20th – Leading Indicators
    • Tuesday November 21st – Existing Home Sales
    • Wednesday November 22nd – MBA Mortgage Applications, Jobless Claims
    • Thursday November 23rd – Markets Closed
    • Friday November 24th – NYSE Closes at 1:00PM

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    The Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale inflation, rose 0.4% in October. Core PPI was also up, supporting a Fed rate increase next month.
    Retail sales were also improved in October, coming in stronger than expected. The increase of 0.2% signals a growing economy and could pressure rates.
    Tax reform continues to make progress in both chambers of Congress. Once passed, the reform is expected to spur further economic growth.

     

    Home builder confidence hit an 8-month high in November, despite increased costs and labor shortages. Buyer demand remains high on reduced inventory.
    National mortgage delinquency rates continue to fall, down 0.6% year-over-year in August. Foreclosure inventory was also down 0.3% year-over-year.
    The House passed legislation to extend the National Flood Insurance Program for 5 years. However, the Senate still must approve the bill for it to take effect.

    I had a job tying sausages together, but I couldn’t make ends meet. 

     

    Please note: We will not publish The Markets in a Minute next week. Wishing you a wonderful Thanksgiving Day!

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,

    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

    Read more
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