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  • Lots of overseas action in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/miam_header_Feb_2016.jpg

    For the Week Ending June 8, 2018

     

     

    The Markets:

    Now that the market jitters seem to have subsided relating to Italy, the indices have resumed their upward movement. This week the stock market is up more than
    400 points for the week, with some new records being set. At the present time confidence in the economy is very high. Last Friday’s strong employment report bolstered sentiment that the economy has few headwinds that will cause it to slow down anytime soon.
    This week was light on economic news, and virtually absent of data relating to the housing market

     

    Job Openings and Labor Turnover Report (JOLTS):

    The labor market seems to be very stable from March to April. Job openings were little changed at 6.7 million on the last business day of April, as reported
    by t

    The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Additionally, new job hires were little changed as well.

     

    Mortgage Application Report:

    In a surprising positive turn, mortgage applications for both refinancing and home purchase increased this past week. The latest data from the Mortgage Bankers
    Association show applications for both types of loans increased 4.0 percent. This breaks the recent downward trend of loan volume. Refinance application increased from 35.3 percent up to 35.6 percent of total mortgage loan applications.

     

    First Time Jobless Claims:

    The latest report shows that claims remained virtually flat from the prior week. At 222,000 for the week ending June 1st, claims remain near historic lows.

     

    ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Report:

    The latest data registered 58.6 percent, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than last month’s April report of 56.8 percent. This once again shows continued
    growth in the non-manufacturing sector, and the pace of growth appears to be accelerating. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 61.3 percent, 2.2 percentage points higher than the April reading of 59.1 percent, reflecting growth for the
    106th consecutive month, at a faster rate in May.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Tuesday June 12th – Consumer Price Index
    • Wednesday June 13th – MBA Mortgage Applications, Producer Price Index, FOMC Announcement
    • Thursday June 14th – First Time Jobless Claims, Retail Sales
    • Friday June 15th – Industrial Production

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome
    the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/FINAL_mortgage_rates_44.png

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/FINAL_rate_volatility_22.png

     

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    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/bullet_graphic11.png

    June’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is next Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to raise policy rates by 0.250% at this meeting.

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/bullet_graphic11.png

    Mortgage rates have already factored in a Fed rate increase. However, rates are creeping up after geopolitical tensions in Italy have dissipated.

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/bullet_graphic11.png

    The European Central Bank also meets next week. If the ECB announces plans to reduce stimulus, rates could be pressured slightly higher.

     

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    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/bullet_graphic11.png

    Volatility in mortgage rates from geopolitical tensions helped push rates lower last week. Mortgage purchase applications rose 4.1% week-over-week.

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/bullet_graphic11.png

    Freddie Mac reports that 46% of first-quarter purchase mortgages were to first-time buyers. This marks the largest share recorded, dating back to 2012.

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/bullet_graphic11.png

    Homes in lower price ranges are appreciating faster than more expensive homes. Prices rose 9.3% year-over-year for homes priced 75% or less of the median.

     

     

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/Last_Laugh_section_head11.png

    Want to hear a pizza joke? Nah, it’s too cheesy…

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period.
    These rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,

    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com
    https://i.eeoo.co/c/6132/PictureWeb.jpg

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee
    is expressed or implied. Any programs shown do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject
    to underwriting approval. Some products may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     


    https://i.eeoo.co/o/1745/Logo2.png

     

    http://url4481.mail.surefire3.com/wf/open?upn=xuNk3-2BDhTcLCDO7Sfs7vOBVCwq8YYRuY7FXEfcPHBbv6xlMSKTlA3roC3gJidnjfcMsXp6tunDECxv3lxKm8ZaLJKEu4Dd-2BbUnUN3TwzSrijq4xxUGb-2BfOAYWz0Lg30f6tyEub620il5sl760KjXCDWHe1OgRydA3OXJ46nkqlie5zUdqt-2BxJ17pofUZPJvl-2BH9-2FknckArDpPa4OMT43t8HbIOEMTuPkQWz9vM4DGig-3D

     

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  • For the 6th straight year, APM has been ranked as a top mortgage lender by the Scotsman Guide.

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  • Why did rates drop? Find out in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/miam_header_Feb_2016.jpg

    For the Week Ending June 1, 2018

     

     

    The Markets:

    Investors are not sure what to make of the ever-changing landscape of potential changes in trade policies as well as geo-political pressure. From President Trump once again threatening heavy tariffs on certain imports, to the latest concerns over Italy potentially leaving the Euro, the markets are experiencing significant daily swings in value. This appears to be the new norm for investing which is causing more and more traders to make investment decisions based on short term stock holding strategies.

     

    S&P Core-Logic HPI:

    The latest home data show prices are still rising. The latest data just released for March shows home prices are up 6.5% from the same time last year. This is the same spread as the prior month. Seattle, Las Vegas, and San Francisco lead the country in appreciation with 13.0 percent, 12.4 percent, and 11.3 percent respectively.

     

    Pending Home Sales:

    After two consecutive months of modest home price increases, the latest data for April showed sales declined to the third-lowest level in the last year. This report was furnished by the National Association of Realtors®, and measures contract signings. The decline of 1.3 percent is being caused by the continued tight inventory throughout the country, that seems to be getting even worse.

     

    Adding to the challenge of home sales, is rising interest rates and higher gas prices. Both of these factors could cause would-be buyers to delay purchase decisions.
    The one potential uplift to the market could be that if demand eases, price appreciation will slow. Homeowners may then realize the market has peaked and look to cash out, which could begin the process of making more homes available and bringing more balance back into the market.

     

    Mortgage Application Activity:

    The Mortgage Bankers Association latest report on loan activity shows purchase applications declined by 2.9 percent. Refinances also dropped by 5.0 percent.
    Rising mortgage rates are starting to play a factor in home purchase activity.

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday June 4th – Factory Orders
    • Tuesday June 5th – JOLTS Report
    • Wednesday June 6th – MBA Mortgage Applications
    • Thursday June 7th – First Time Jobless Claims
    • Friday June 8th – Wholesale Trade

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I
    welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/FINAL_mortgage_rates_23.png

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/FINAL_rate_volatility_22.png

     

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/Economy_section_head11.png

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/bullet_graphic11.png

    First quarter economic growth was solid though slightly lower than expected at 2.2%. An improving economy can pressure rates higher.

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/bullet_graphic11.png

    Mortgage rates improved as overseas investors took to the safety of U.S. bonds. Political turmoil in Italy was the largest catalyst as their markets crashed.

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/bullet_graphic11.png

    Consumer spending increased in April, amid rising inflation. Inflation and a strong labor market will likely lead to a Fed rate increase at June’s FOMC meeting.

     

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/housing_section_head11.png

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/bullet_graphic11.png

    Home price gains may be slowing down as mortgage rates creep up. March prices were unchanged compared to February, according to Case-Shiller.

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/bullet_graphic11.png

    Even still, values rose 6.5% nationally over last year. Housing prices are now 7.8% above their previous peak during the housing boom of 2006.

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/bullet_graphic11.png

    Pending home sales fell 1.3% in April compared to March. Most economists blame low inventory rather than slightly higher mortgage rates as the cause.

     

     

    https://i.eeoo.co/o/407/Assets/Last_Laugh_section_head11.png

    I used to be a banker, but then I lost interest.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period.
    These rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

     

    Sincerely,

    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com
    https://i.eeoo.co/c/6132/PictureWeb.jpg

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee
    is expressed or implied. Any programs shown do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     


    https://i.eeoo.co/o/1745/Logo2.png

     


    http://url4481.mail.surefire3.com/wf/open?upn=xuNk3-2BDhTcLCDO7Sfs7vOBVCwq8YYRuY7FXEfcPHBbvWpYB-2FBif57IgwEVTqOk-2FuG90bhORnSLuAVKKz-2FYDCI1DH2AI8jtYneVbz-2FYe1M8phEOfqhj69aR36r8DD4bujMrulrUHJORh8x0syRgBapcnyXdx7yR19Srnt1POAOvXQvXzxddRrly0v5GSqXMARi9NRYBTWX1WKJW0n0XzDATZgl5rsDSE-2FKI27zI3-2FtcU-3D

     

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  • Housing inventory still an issue in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending May 25, 2018

    New Home Sales:

    The latest data on new home sales shows a decline of 1.5 percent in the month of April. This is down to an annualized rate of 662,000. This comes off the downward revision to March’s figure of 672,000. The good news in the report is that the pace of new home sales remains higher from the same time last year by 11.6 percent. The current supply of new homes is measured at 5.4 months at the current sales rate.

     

    Existing Home Sales Report:

    Existing home sales had been rising for two straight months. This trend was reversed in April with a decline in sales of 2.5 percent according to the National Association of Realtors®. The annualized rate declined from 5.60 million in March down to 5.46 million. Sales are now 1.4 percent lower than the same time last year. Low inventory continues to be the hindrance to the market. Many housing experts are stymied by the fact that the aging population is not selling in order to downsize. The reality is that anyone who is thinking of selling is having trouble figuring out where they are going to move because housing is so limited. Instead of struggling to move, many homeowners are electing to remain where they are and fix up the homes that need it.

     

    Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index:

    Home prices in the U.S. rose 1.7 percent in the first quarter of 2018. Compared to the same time last year, prices are up 6.9 percent. The question that remains is the trend for home prices rising beginning to slow? The reason there is increasing concern is that the latest report shows a rise of only 0.1 percent in March. This is the lowest increase seen in quite a long time.

     

    Mortgage Application Activity:

    Mortgage rates continue to creep up, and mortgage loan activity continues to inch lower. The latest release from the Mortgage Bankers Association show refinance applications declined 4.0 percent, and purchase applications dropped 2.0 percent in the week ending March 18th. Refinance applications represent only 35.7 percent of all mortgage financing.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday May 28th – Memorial Day, All Markets Closed
    • Tuesday May 29th – S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer Confidence
    • Wednesday May 30th – MBA Mortgage Applications, ADP Employment Report, Corporate Profits
    • Thursday May 31st – First Time Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales
    • Friday June 1st – National Employment, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing Index

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Minutes released this week from last month’s Fed meeting point to a policy rate increase in June. However, mortgage rates likely won’t be affected.
    Inflation is showing signs of increasing, but the Fed isn’t too concerned yet. They indicated a temporary period of higher inflation would still be ok for
    the economy.
    The labor market continues to tighten, with unemployment at a 17-year low of 3.9%. A strong labor market is supportive of a Fed rate increase in June.

     

    Sales of new single-family homes fell slightly in April but were higher than expected. Economists blame the drop on lack of inventory.
    Home prices continue to rise, according to the FHFA Housing Price Index. However, the rate of increase has slowed compared to previous months. 
    Mortgage applications were down again last week, but refinance applications were most affected. Purchase applications were still 3% higher than a year ago.

     

    Best “Out of Office” email auto replies…

     

    1. I am currently out at a job interview and will reply to you if I fail to get the position.

    2. I’m not really out of the office. I’m just ignoring you.

    3. You are receiving this automatic notification because I am out of the office. If I were in, chances are you wouldn’t have received anything at all.

    4. Sorry to have missed you, but I am at the doctor’s having my brain removed so that I may be promoted to management.

    5. I will be unable to delete all the unread, worthless emails you send me until I return from vacation on 4/18. Please be patient, and your email will
    be deleted in the order it was received.

     

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,

    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

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  • Rising rates aren’t hurting demand in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

     

    For the Week Ending May 18, 2018
     

    The Economy:

    The economy is humming along when it comes to manufacturing and corporate profits. Most of the benchmark corporations like Alphabet (the parent company of Google) Apple, etc… all reported profits higher than expected.
    Consumer spending remains strong and unemployment remains at an all-time low. The labor market continues to have far more jobs available than people willing, or qualified to fill them. Consumer spending continues to rise.

     

    Housing Starts:

    Despite the upbeat reports on the economy, the latest housing data may have put a wrinkle on the picture of the brightening economy. Housing starts declined unexpectedly by 3.7 percent in April to the lowest rate since December. The one factor of stability in the report is that single-family homes only dipped 0.1 percent. Apartment construction is where the decline is most notable with a drop of 12.6 percent. The silver-lining is that the starts of single-family homes are up 10.5 from this time last year.

     

    The Housing Market Index:

    Despite the decline in housing starts, confidence of home builders remains strong. The Housing Market Index moved higher in May to a level of 70 vs a downwardly revised index of 68 for April. Confidence in the current sales pace is where the index got its lift. The measure of buyer traffic visiting new construction sites remained the same for the third month in a row. First time buyers seem to be the largest missing component from buyer activity in new construction.

     

    Mortgage Financing:

    Mortgage financing declined once again for the week ending May 11th. Mortgage rates inched higher last week which resulted in a 2.0 percent decline in purchase loan activity. Refinances dropped 4.0 percent. Not be a pessimist, but we are likely to see a further decline in applications next week given that mortgage rates rose even more this week. The next MBA report is due out on Wednesday.

     

    Inflation and Interest Rates:

    Bond yields continue to rise which is causing mortgage rates to do the same. The benchmark 10YR bond rose over 3.0 percent this week which was considered a major line to cross for interest rate trends.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Tuesday May 22nd – Richmond Fed Manufacturing index
    • Wednesday May 23rd – MBA Mortgage Applications, New Home Sales, FOMC Minutes
    • Thursday May 24th – First Time Jobless Claims, FHFA House Price Index, Existing Home Sales

    • Friday May 25th – Durable Goods Orders

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Retail sales rose 0.3% in April, matching expectations. Consumer spending is also picking up, but higher gas prices are cutting into discretionary spending.
    The increase in sales and spending is driving investors’ concerns about increasing inflation. These concerns have helped push mortgage rates higher.
    Although jobless claims were slightly higher last week at 220,000, the number of people on unemployment rolls fell to the lowest level since 1973.

     

    Home builder confidence rose in May, according to the NAHB. Low unemployment and strong demand have builders looking favorably on the market.
    However, housing starts were down slightly in April from March. Lumber costs and difficulty hiring as many workers as needed are contributing factors.
    Rising rates don’t seem to be affecting demand for housing. Although mortgage applications fell slightly last week, the decline was mostly for refi applications. 

    I get plenty of exercise—jumping to conclusions, pushing my luck, and dodging deadlines.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,

    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

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