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  • Labor market rebounds in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending January 19, 2018

     

    The Stock Market and the Economy:

    Stocks continue to rise, hitting 26,000 this week. Investors continue to pour more money into the market to ride the rising tide. Corporate profit season is upon us and is expected to show great results for the 4th quarter of 2017. Results will be released over the next couple of weeks. Stock market euphoria continues over the tax plan passed a couple of weeks ago.

    It was inevitable that talk of regulation on cryptocurrencies was bound to heat up. More and more countries are announcing plans to either regulate, or completely prohibit trading. Bitcoin, which is the most know currency, has lost almost 50% of its value from its all time high just a few weeks ago. Most other currencies have taken it on the chin with losses in the 25%-40% range.

     

    Housing Market Index:

    The National Association of Home Builders continue to believe strongly in the housing market. The latest report shows builder confidence at or near all time highs. One of the main factors driving this sentiment is the continued high flow of traffic at properties. Even first-time buyers are showing up at new construction sites which has been something that was noticeably absent in recent years.

     

    Housing Starts:

    Despite the surprising drop in single family starts, the latest data on new home construction activity continues to point to a strong housing market. Single-family starts declined 11.8 percent which certainly was not anticipated by anyone. Weather in the winter months can play a factor in this data and can cause wide movement in this report.

    Permits for new single-family construction came in with a very strong annualized rate of 881,000, representing an increase in 1.8 percent for the month of December. Lack of available inventory has been the main culprit holding down sales. However, completions of single-family homes jumped 4.3 percent, which is likely to further bolster housing growth in the coming months.

     

    Mortgage Rates:

    The highest rates in ten months did not impact mortgage loan activity. Purchase and refinance application both increased by 3.0 percent and 4.0 percent respectively in the week ending January 12th.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Tuesday January 23rd – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
    • Wednesday January 24th – MBA Mortgage Applications, FHFA HPI, Existing Home Sales
    • Thursday January 25th – First Time Jobless Claims, New Home Sales
    • Friday January 26th – Durable Goods Orders, GDP

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Jobless claims plunged to the lowest level since 1973 this week, the biggest drop since April 2009. Labor market strength can pressure rates higher.
    According to a recently released Fed report, the economy and inflation expanded at a modest-to-moderate pace from November to the end of 2017.
    Inflation, which pressures interest rates to move higher, is not increasing across the U.S. consistently. West coast metro areas are showing higher inflation. 

     

    Although homebuilder confidence was down slightly in January, it’s still strong. Builders’ biggest concerns remain costs of material and labor shortages.
    New housing starts fell more than expected in December. However, the moderation is likely to be temporary amid strong demand for housing.
    Mortgage purchase applications jumped 4.1% last week, and volume rose 5.6% over last year. Speculation is that consumers fear rates may be increasing.

    The early bird may get the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese in the trap.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

     

    Sincerely,
    Fred
    Kreger

    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

     

    Read more
  • Using bitcoin to buy a mansion in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending January 12, 2018
     

     The Stock Market and the Economy:

    The stock market continues to soar to the stars. Another week, and more record highs. The driving force behind the Dow’s rocket ship climb is the expectation of tremendous growth in corporate earnings. The economy as a whole is doing extremely well. We are essentially at full employment in the United States. There are numerous strong economic data reports that have been coming out. Inflation remains low while interest rates are also low. Major corporations are showing strong profits.

     

    Now add on top of all this the fact that corporate taxes are dropping from 39% to 21%. This sets the stage for huge corporate profits and business growth. As much as there has been much criticism regarding the change in tax policy, more and more companies are announcing that they are giving some of the tax reduction windfall back to their employees. Albeit in most cases, what is being paid out to employees is not significant in comparison to the savings the companies will receive, it is still more money going to consumers that will bolster the economy further.

     

    Job Openings and Labor Turnover Report:

    Despite the fact that the number of job openings has declined slightly from the highs of July, there is still clearly a labor shortage. New hiring continues to remain strong at or near the all-time high that was set in October at 5.592 million.

    Workers and employers however are remaining risk adverse. The number of people leaving their current jobs declined by 0.9 percent in November. Even though there are plenty of job openings, it appears that workers seem to be more comfortable and secure remaining where they are versus seeking higher pay.

     

    Mortgage Application Activity:

    Despite mortgage rates rising in the first week of the year, home loan activity for both purchases and refinances continues to point to a strong housing market. For the week ending January 5th, applications for refinancing unexpectedly jumped by 11.00 percent. For the same period mortgage apps for purchasing increased by 5.0 percent. Refinance applications still represent approximately 52 percent of mortgage loan activity.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday January 15th – Martin Luther King Jr. Day
    • Tuesday January 16th – Empire State Manufacturing Survey
    • Wednesday January 17th – MBA Mortgage Applications, Housing Market Index
    • Thursday January 18th – First Time Jobless Claims, Housing Starts
    • Friday January 19th – Consumer Sentiment

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Producer prices fell for the first time in nearly 1-1/2 years in December. This could temper expectations that inflation will accelerate in 2018.
    Unemployment benefit claims increased for the 4th straight week, to a 3-month high. Likely due to weather, the change doesn’t signal weakness in the labor
    market.
    The implemented tax reform is already being credited for increased economic growth. Multiple companies are reported to be passing savings on to workers.

     

    CORRECTION FROM LAST WEEK: The final tax reform plan does
    not allow taxpayers to deduct interest for either new or existing home equity loans. We apologize for the error.
    Mortgage applications on newly constructed homes rose 18% in December from the previous month. The applications were 7.8% higher than December 2016.
    The seller of a 9,000-sq-ft mansion in Malibu is willing to accept bitcoin as part of the payment. The volatile cryptocurrency is not usually used for home
    purchases.
    Home equity has hit a new record high, reported to be $5.5 trillion. Remodeling spending topped $152 billion in 2017 and is forecast to increase in 2018.

    How long have I been working for this company? Ever since they threatened to fire me.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,

    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

    Read more
  • Fresh news for 2018 in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

     

    For the Week Ending January 5, 2018

    The Stock Market and the Economy:

    Heading into the new year, “all systems go”. The stock market continues to rise and faith in the economy continues to grow. Employment does not seem to be a concern as job growth continues to rise and unemployment remains at historical lows. The Fed minutes released this week show that the board members want to continue to increase interest rates. However, there plan is for doing it slowly and making sure they remain in tune with any changes in the economy that would
    require altering their plan.

     

    Additionally, the most recent forecast for global economic growth is strong. Europe, which has struggled for many years, and more so since the Brexit vote, is coming back strong. Car makers are optimistic about European sales, and home builders are feeling great as well. The Japanese economy is also doing quite well.

     

    U.S. Motor Vehicle Sales:

    One of the strength indicators of the U.S. economy is often motor vehicle sales. For the month of December, sales remained strong at an annualized rate of 17.9 million versus November’s 17.5 million. Other than October and November sales, which were off the charts because of hurricane-replacement demand, December’s pace is one of the best over the last 2 years.

     

    U.S. Construction Spending and Manufacturing:

    Spending increased broadly in November, with a reported jump of 0.8 percent. Construction spending on residential properties rose 1.0 percent. Single-family inventory increased by a very welcome 1.9 percent. This rise in available properties should translate into further increases in new home sales in the coming months. Homeowners also seem to be putting more money into their properties. Home improvement rose by a strong 0.7 percent for the month.

     

    The best part of this report is that single-family construction is up 8.9 percent from the same time last year. Home improvements are up by a whopping 9.8 percent. All of this positive data adds on to the recent string of strong and improving housing reports.

    The ISM Manufacturing Index jumped with a 14 year high for new orders. The index rose by 1.5 points up to 59.7 which points to great strength in the sector. Inventories are dwindling because of demand.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday January 8th – Consumer Credit
    • Tuesday January 9th – Job Openings and Labor Turnover Report
    • Wednesday January 10th – MBA Mortgage Applications
    • Thursday January 11th – First Time Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index
    • Friday January 12th – Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Tax reform passed for 2018 is expected to spur more economic growth. A stronger economy could pressure mortgage rates higher through 2018.
    The minutes from the Fed’s last meeting showed concerns over sluggish inflation. The lack of inflation has helped to keep mortgage rates low in the past.
    The labor market continues to show strength. The private sector added 250,000 jobs in December, the biggest increase since March.

     

    Home prices continue to soar. CoreLogic reports for November 2017 show that home prices were up year-over-year by 7%, the 4th consecutive month of growth.
    The Federal Housing Finance Agency is considering the VantageScore model instead of FICO for mortgage lending. This could result in more qualified buyers.
    The final tax reform plan changed the mortgage deduction on new loans from a cap of $1 million to $750,000, with an additional $100,000 for home equity loans.

    My New Year’s resolution is to help all my friends gain ten pounds so I look skinnier.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

     

    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

     

    Read more
  • The Last 2017 Markets in a Minute this Week!

     

     

    For the Week Ending December 29, 2017

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

    The Stock Market and Investing:

    The end of the year stock rally appears to be more subdued this year than in previous years. None the less, the stock market is finishing the year at, or very close to record highs. Anyone who has money in any type of 401K, IRA, Money Market, etc… has nothing to complain about this year. Unless the money manager running a fund was completely oblivious to the world, it would be impossible for any investor not to see the value of their portfolio rise sharply. More of the same is expected for the early part of 2018 barring on major national or international event that could spook the economy.

     

    The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller House Price Index:

    The home price increase in 2017 is one of the biggest stories for the economy. Even though the final numbers for the 2017 Case-Shiller HPI won’t be announced until February, the first 10 months of the year have been terrific. The year-on-year comparison from 2017 to 2016 shows prices are up 6.4 percent. This is the strongest gain in home values since July 2014. The most recent report shows the 20-city index with a healthy gain of 0.7 percent. This is the second month  in a row that all 20 cities showed a gain. Las Vegas led the way with a 1.4 percent rise, while San Francisco came in second with a 1.2 percent increase.

     

    Lack of home supply continues to be the central factor creating upward pressure on prices. With the continued growth in housing demand, home prices are likely to continue to rise in 2018.

     

    Pending Home Sales:

    There appears to be no clear explanation as to why the pending home sales index has been relatively flat, and not in line with the strength of existing home sales. Even though overall housing data has been strong heading into the end of the year, this index seems to be running at its own pace. Pending home sales rose only 0.2 percent in November. The one exception to the slow movement of this index was last month’s report of a sharp increase of 3.5 percent.

     

    The regional breakdown for October’s report is that there were small declines in the West and South. The Midwest rose slightly, and the Northeast rocketed higher by 4.1 percent. Nationally, the Northeast for most of the year, has had the largest available housing inventory. This could very easily be the explanation for the higher level of pending sales in this region versus other parts of the country.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday January 1st – New Years Day – All Markets Closed
    • Tuesday January 2nd – PMI Manufacturing Index
    • Wednesday January 3rd – MBA Mortgage Applications, Construction Spending, ISM Mfg Index
    • Thursday January 4th – First Time Jobless Claims, ADP Employment Report
    • Friday January 5th – Employment situation, Factory Orders

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,

    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

    Read more
  • The economy is booming in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending December 22, 2017
     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

    The Stock Market and Investing:

    The reality check has happened. Friday morning Bitcoin investors in the United States woke up to find that the value of the cryptocurrency tanked 18 percent overnight. This is the fourth consecutive day of losses
    for virtually all cryptocurrencies. The concerning part is that the latest runup on the electronic currencies was driven by a large portion of people purchasing using credit cards. With all the hype of the increased in values, not only traditional investors,
    but people who know nothing about the market jumped in to make purchases in an attempt to ride the wave.

     

    The Housing Market Index:

    New home sales surged back in the month of September. Builders are excited, and it is showing in the housing market index. The latest reading showed a much larger than expected 5 point jump in builder confidence.
    The big driver of the increase in confidence is the unexpected jump in buyer traffic. It appears that all of a sudden there is a flood of new buyers in the market. One possible explanation is that it may not be so much new buyers, buy possibly buyers who have
    given up trying to find a pre-existing home and are now deciding that new construction is the way to get into a home.

     

    Existing Home Sales:

    More great housing news comes from November’s existing home sales data. The latest numbers show a jump of 5.6 percent. This brings the annualized rate to 5.810 million, which is by far the strongest level of the
    current housing expansion.

    As expected, the jump in sales has eliminated even more inventory in the housing market. The housing supply in October was 3.9 months. This latest surge in purchases has brought the available supply down to only
    3.4 months. If demand continues, this will be a windfall for builders, as it is likely to create more upward pressure on home prices and demand for new construction.

     

    Housing starts:

    The trifecta of positive housing reports comes in the latest data on housing starts. In November builders increased construction by 3.3 percent. Additionally, single-family permit rose 1.4 percent, which is the most
    important component of this measurement. All-in-all, housing is very strong in the country.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday December 25th – Christmas Day – All Markets Closed
    • Tuesday December 26th – State Street Investor Confidence Index
    • Wednesday December 27th – MBA Mortgage Applications, Pending Home Sales, S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer Confidence
    • Thursday December 28th – First Time Jobless Claims

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way
    I possibly can.

     

     

    The final version of the tax reform plan has been approved by both chambers of Congress. President Trump should sign it into law on or before January 3rd.
    Third quarter economic growth estimates were lowered slightly from 3.3% to 3.2%. Even still, the economy grew at its fastest pace in more than 2 years.
    Despite a jump in the number of filings for unemployment benefits last week, the underlying trend in jobless claims remained consistent with a strong labor
    market.

     

    Existing home sales hit an 11-year high in November, despite tight inventory. They rose 3.8% on a year-over-year basis, rising for the 3rd straight month.
    New home starts were above expectations for November, at 1.297 million (annualized rate). Single-family housing units surged to a more than 10-yr high.
    Pointing to further future increases in inventory, single-family home permits rose 1.4% to 862,000. This is a level not seen since August 2007.

    Why does Scrooge love reindeer so much?
    Because every single buck is deer to him!

     

    Please note: We will not publish The Markets in a Minute during Christmas week. Hope your holiday is great, and we’ll see
    you in the new year.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

     

    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

    Read more
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