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  • New all-time highs for housing confidence in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

    For the Week Ending March 10, 2017
    The markets have been somewhat in a holding pattern as investors await next weeks Fed decision on interest rates. Although, more than 70% of analysts interviewed believe that the Fed will raise rates, investors appear to be waiting for the announcement before making any major changes in their finance strategies.
    Adding to the likelihood that the Fed will raise rates next week are this week’s ADP Employment Report and the National Labor Department Report. On Wednesday ADP released that their data which showed a giant increase in private payrolls by 298,000 for the month of February. This was more than 100,000 higher than the high end of analyst’s expectations.
    The markets did not react with much more than a yawn as investors do not put much faith in the accuracy of the ADP report compared to the Labor Department data. However, it is important to note that in January ADP was relatively accurate with their estimates. Overall in the last year, ADP reporting has been much closer to the Labor Department numbers than they have been in years past.
    Friday the Labor Department reported a gain of 235,000 jobs. Although the number is lower than ADP’s number, the results are still very strong. This growth in the labor force piggybacks on January’s gain of 238,000. This report all but cements the likelihood the Fed raising rates at the Fed meeting next week.
    The Mortgage Bankers Association of American reported that last week purchase applications rose by 2.0 percent while refinances increased 5.0 percent. Mortgage rates had ticked down in the last week and that is likely the stimulus for the increase in refinances. Purchase applications, although continuing to rise, are being tempered by the fact that there is a significant lack of housing inventory across the country.
    Oregon and Washington have been the main areas of the country lacking inventory for pretty much all of last year. This year, the housing shortage has expanded and has been felt in many more areas across the United States. The Northeast and South are now facing significant shortage in available housing inventory for sale. The Midwest has also experienced a decline in housing inventory but not to the degree of the other regions.

    First time jobless claims continue to remain extremely low. Down to 243,000, along with this week’s very strong employment reports, the decline in claims is likely to continue.
    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday March 13th – Labor Market Index
    • Tuesday March 14th – FOMC Meeting Begins
    • Wednesday March 15th – MBA Applications, FOMC Announcement, FOMC Forecasts, Retail Sales, Consumer Price Index, and the Housing Market Index
    • Thursday March 16th – First Time Jobless Claims, JOLTS Report, and Housing Starts
    • Friday March 17th – Industrial Production and Consumer Sentiment
    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.
    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

    A Fed policy rate hike next week is now almost 100% certain, after recent comments by Fed officials. The Fed anticipates three rate increases in 2017.
    The Fed’s mandate is to keep strong employment and low inflation. Jobs data this week showed the labor market remains strong, with low unemployment.
    Inflation is on the rise, both in the U.S. and abroad, as the economy continues to grow. Inflation pressures mortgage rates and could contribute to higher rates.
    Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index for February had five of the six components hit record highs, showing continued strength in the housing market.
    Consumer confidence in the housing market hit a new all-time high in February. Of those surveyed, 40% say now is a good time to buy a home.
    Although tight inventory remains a problem, there may be hope on the horizon. Twenty-two percent of consumers say now is a good time to sell, also a new high.

     

     

    A recent scientific study showed that out of 2,293,618,367 people, 94% are too lazy to actually read that number.
    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.
    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA 91355
    www.fredkreger.com

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

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  • Fed rate hike looming in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending March 3, 2017

    If you have investments in the stock market through 401K’s, IRA’s, etc…you might want to look at your account balances. The Dow jones Industrial Average soared rapidly from the 20,000 mark right through to the next plateau of 21K. It is likely that your account balances are going along for the ride and increasing nicely. The markets continue to rise as investors are accepting that the Fed is very likely to raise interest rates at the March Fed FOMC meeting. The expected move by the Fed is seen as a clear indication that the economy continues to strengthen, and that in the end, so will corporate profits.

     

    Fueling the likelihood of the Fed raising rates is the most recent GDP report released on Tuesday for the 4th quarter of 2016. Although the report for this period was little changed from the 3rd quarter, the annualized pace of growth of 1.9 percent is considered stable enough to reinforce the feelings of a strengthening economy. In addition, there was a surprising increase on consumer spending which rose .5 percent to an annualized rate of 3.0 percent.

     

    Last week the January report on pending home sales declined unexpectedly by 2.8 percent. Although the headline number caught many experts by surprise, looking deeper into the data, the cause is not lack of demand, but more so that inventories are close to historic lows on a national level. The hardest hit market is the West in which contract signings were down 9.8 percent from December to January. Compared to the same time last year, sales are down 0.4 percent for pending sales on a national level.

     

    The fore mentioned inventory shortage is now beginning to impact home prices. The December S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed home prices in the 20-city index increased from November to December by 0.9 percent. Compared to the same time last year home prices are up 5.6 percent. These are some of the strongest readings we have witnessed in the last year relating to home values rising.

     

    Despite the shortage of housing inventory, mortgage applications for purchases and refinances both jumped 7.0 percent and 5.0 percent respectively. The increase in loan activity can be attributed to the recent downward movement in interest rates as well as the typical increase in activity that occurs heading into the spring buying season. Although we are still sitting in Winter, many parts of the country are experiencing warmer than normal weather, and that can be a stimulus for more activity.

     

    Consumer confidence continues to remain strong. The latest report posted a strong gain of 3.2 points from January to February. The current reading of 114.8 remains at the highest point since the election. The one thing to note is that even though the index is quite high, consumer spending has improved, but not at the same pace. That tells us that people feel better about the economy and the future of it, but are continuing to remain cautious with their money.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Wednesday March 8th – MBA Applications and ADP Employment Report
    • Thursday March 9th – First Time Jobless Claims
    • Friday March 10th – National Employment

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    The idea of a Fed policy rate hike in March has gained steam, with an almost 80% expectation it will happen. Just last week there was only a 30% chance.
    Consumer spending was down slightly in January, but manufacturing increased. The labor market remains strong, with jobless claims near a 44-year low.
    Inflation recorded the biggest monthly increase in 4 years in January, raising the probability of a policy rate hike from the Fed this month.

     

    Pending home sales were down slightly in January compared to December, blamed on higher mortgage rates and near record low supply.
    However, strong demand and low inventory also pushed home price gains to a 2-1/2-year high. Home prices rose 5.8% year over year in December.
    Construction spending was down slightly, but spending on private construction (like homes) was up. Spending on residential construction actually increased 0.5%.

    What do you call a fake noodle?

    An impasta.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA 91355

    www.fredkreger.com

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

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  • Existing home sales hit a 10-year high in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending February 24, 2017

    The stock market just keeps going higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up almost another 200 points for the week. Since there has been little domestic or international news that would be considered disruptive to corporate earnings, investors keep buying stock. There is some talk that the market is getting too oversold and that a correction is coming. However, the majority of investors do not seem to being paying any mind to that possibility and trading volume and stock purchases remain high.

     

    The existing home sales market is very hot right now. The resale market started 2017 with a very strong report of an increase of 3.3 percent from December. With a home sale rate of 5.690 million, this is the best showing for home sales since February of 2007.

     

    Single family homes represented a strong portion of the growth. The surprise related to the increase in this sector is that housing inventory on a national level is at only 3.6 months. With such low inventory, it is unusual that the sales rate would be so high. It appears that more sellers are coming on the market, however buyer demand is staying right in line with the increase. Overall existing home sales are up 3.8 percent from the same time last year.

    Home prices continue to rise, although not at a super-fast pace. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) reported that home prices for December rose 0.4 percent. Overall prices are up 6.2 percent from the same time last year. As has been the case for many months, For the last quarter of 2016, Oregon is at the top with appreciation of 11.0 percent. Replacing Seattle, which has been a leading price growth area, is Colorado with an increase of 10.6 percent followed by Florida showing a rise of 10.4 percent. Specifically, St. Petersburg – Clearwater leaped 13.2 percent for the final quarter of last year. Wilmington Delaware was at the bottom with a price decline of 1.8 percent.

     

    The seasonally adjusted index for mortgage applications, for both purchases and refinances, declined for the week ending February 17th. Purchase loan apps dropped 3.0 percent while refi’s inched lower by 1.0 percent according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America. The Presidents Day holiday likely played a role in the decline as many parts of the country schools were closed for their Winter Break. Overall purchase applications are up 10.0 percent from the same time last year. Refinance apps are down to the lowest level since November 2008.

     

    In the release of the most recent FOMC minutes, it was clear that the focus in the meeting was directly towards the next meeting scheduled for March. Raising rates is a very hot topic. Language in the minutes revealed that many board members believe that a rate hike would be appropriate “fairly soon”.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday February 27th – Pending home Sales and Durable Goods Orders
    • Tuesday February 28th – S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI and Consumer Confidence
    • Wednesday March 1st – MBA Applications, ISM Manufacturing Index, and Construction Spending
    • Thursday March 2nd – First Time Jobless Claims
    • Friday March 3rd – ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Although markets were closed on Monday for Presidents’ Day, stocks once again hit new highs this week as traders expect the economy to continue improving.
    Unemployment filings continue to reflect labor market strength. Although up slightly this week, jobless claims have the lowest 4-week average since 1973.
    The minutes from last month’s FOMC meeting show the Fed could be looking to raise policy rates soon. The decision will depend on data for jobs and inflation.

     

    Existing home sales surged to a 10-year high in January. Demand remains strong as buyers shrug off increasing prices and higher mortgage rates.
    A survey of 30 analysts by Reuters predicts home prices will rise at almost double the current rate of underlying inflation and wages over the next few years.
    Small investors buying homes to flip or rent remain a strong part of the market. Last year, 37% of homes sold were acquired by buyers who didn’t live in them.

    My grandpa started walking five miles a day when he was 60. 

    Now he’s 97, and we have no idea where he is.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

     

    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA 91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

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  • Lots of home sales news in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

    For the Week Ending January 27, 2017

    DOW 20,000, yes it finally happened! After weeks of drifting all around it, the Dow closed above 20K and has remained there ever since. Although we cannot say it is firmly seated at this new level, the index has managed to hold on to the majority of the gains this week.

    One thing that appears to be taking shape, which few experts seem to agree upon, is how the potential trade war will Mexico will impact the markets and U.S. economy. In his first few days in office, President Trump has made his intentions clear to follow through on his campaign promise that he is not going to allow countries to take unfair advantage of the U.S. in trade. Mexico is his first target.

     

    In two bold moves, first the President has drawn a line in the sand with the President of Mexico in stating that “either Mexico agrees to pay for the construction of the border wall, or he is going to begin working towards taxing Mexican imports to pay for it”. Mexico has refused to agree to this so Trump is indicating he is going to begin the process to make changes to how Mexican imports are taxed.

     

    Secondly, the President has already put countries on notice that the U.S. will no longer participate in North American Free Trade Agreement in its current form. This too will have a major impact on trade with Mexico. Both of these declarations on trade can have significant ramifications on the markets and consumers, however there is little agreement by experts on exactly what the impact will be.

     

    There was a time where experts could fairly accurately predict market behavior on economic moves such as the one’s Trump is implementing. However, to date nothing Trump has done, either before or after the election, has resulted in the market outcomes most economists predicted. One thing is for sure, time will tell exactly what will happen. While we wait, there guaranteed to be no shortage of concern as to the results of these potential unprecedented policy changes.

     

    Challenges to the real estate market continue to exists. Existing home sales in December declined 2.8 percent from the prior month. Demand is NOT the issue. Housing inventory is at the lowest level since 1999. Current inventory is rated at 3.6 months, down from 3.9 in November. Adding to the inventory challenge is the number of buyers jumping into the market to purchase before mortgage rates rise.

     

    On the positive side of housing, home prices remain strong. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that home prices in November rose 0.5 percent. Compared to the same time last year, prices are higher by 6.1%. Agents around the country are reporting increased seller activity as well, however it is not near enough to satisfy the current buyer demand.

     

    Next week’s many potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday January 30th – Pending Home Sales
    • Tuesday January 31st – S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI and FOMC Meeting Begins
    • Wednesday February 1st – MBA Applications, Construction Spending, and ADP Employment
    • Thursday February 2nd – First Time Jobless Claims
    • Friday February 3rd – National Employment Data

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Equities are rallying. The Dow Jones got the most press this week when it hit a new high of 20,000. The S&P and the Nasdaq reached new highs as well.
    The Fed will meet next week, although it’s not likely we’ll see a policy rate increase right now. The Fed has said it will probably raise rates 3 times this year.
    However, mortgage rates are influenced by bond market movement and are not controlled directly by the Fed. Current economic growth could pressure mortgage rates higher.

     

    After 3 straight months of gains, new home sales were down slightly in December. Demand remained strong despite recent slight rate increases.
    Existing home sales were also down slightly, with the decline being blamed on short inventory. Supply of previously owned homes was at a 17-year low in December.
    The median price for new homes rose to $322,500, a 7% increase from December 2015. Home sales prices are expected to continue to increase in 2017.

    A guy walks into a bar and takes a seat. Before he can order a beer, the bowl of pretzels in front of him says, “Hey, you’re a handsome fellow.”


    The man tries to ignore the bowl of pretzels and orders a fine pilsner beer.


    The bowl of pretzels then says, “Ooooh, a pilsner, great choice. You’re a smart man.”


    Starting to freak out, the guy says to the bartender, “Hey, what the heck? This bowl of pretzels keeps saying nice things to me!”


    The bartender replies, “Don’t worry about it. The pretzels are complimentary.”

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    www.fredkreger.com

     

    Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

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  • Housing starts jump 11.3% in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending January 20, 2017

    The euphoria in the markets over the “Trump factor” has clearly worn off. For three week’s now, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been trying to break the 20,000 mark and has yet to do it. Recent concerns over some of President (As of Friday January 20th) Trump’s policies and plans, as well as other happenings internationally, has investors concerned.

     

    The big news this week has been in housing. Real estate and mortgage professionals around the country are reporting a significant increase in purchase activity. It appears that people who have been considering buying a home are now jumping into the market. The reason for the increase in activity is attributed to both the end of the holiday hangover, and the fact that many purchasers want to get in while mortgage rates remain very low.

     

    Next week there are three important housing reports coming out, however this week we already had a couple that confirm the positive direction of the market. The Housing Market Index, which is a survey conducted by The National Association of Home Builders in which responders are asked to rate the general economy and housing market conditions, jumped an unusually strong 7 points in December. This is pointing to significant positive momentum for housing heading into the new year. As I stated earlier, buyer activity has already increased just in the last week. Builder confidence is the highest since the sub-prime boom back in 2007.

     

    Housing starts, which measures the registered start of a new residential building or home, leaped 11.3 percent in December. The driving factor in the increase is multi-units versus single family homes, however the positive movement is still a very welcome sign for the direction of housing, and a great way to kick off the new year.

     

    Mortgage rates have risen in the last week however, the recent rate decline did what it normally does, boosted refinance applications. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, applications for refinancing jumped 7.0 percent for the week ending January 13th. Purchase applications declined 5.0 percent, however that number does not have me concerned at all. Purchase activity almost always is down immediately following the holidays. With the latest activity reported in the market just this week, it is clear buyers are hitting the streets. As well, it appears that more sellers are listing their homes for sale which should begin to slowly ease inventory shortages that exist in many markets.

     

    First time jobless claims were reported for the week of January 14th to be only 234,000. This is the lowest the figure has been dating all the way back to the 1970’s. This too is great for housing.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday January 23rd – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
    • Tuesday January 24th – Existing Home Sales
    • Wednesday January 25th – MBA Applications & FHFA House Price Index
    • Thursday January 26th – First Time Jobless Claims & New Home Sales
    • Friday January 27th – Durable Goods Orders & GDP

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Recent comments by Fed Chair Janet Yellen point to multiple policy rate increases in 2017, supported by a strong labor market and increasing inflation. 
    Jobless claims fell to 233,000, the lowest level since November 1973. Claims remained below 300,000, the healthy market threshold, for the 98th straight week.
    U.S. consumer prices rose in December in the largest year-over-year increase in 2-1/2 years, signaling inflation pressures could be building. 

     

    Housing starts jumped 11.3% in December, a sign of a strengthening economy. The housing market remains strong despite a recent increase in mortgage rates.
    The NAHB Housing Market Index pointed to a slightly less confident outlook among home builders. However, the reading of 67 is still favorable.
    Buyer demand is considered abnormally strong for the off-season, as tight inventory and possibly increasing mortgage rates give buyers a sense of urgency.

    A manager of a retail clothing store is reviewing a potential employee’s application and notices that they have never worked in retail before. The manager says to the applicant, “For a person with no experience, you are certainly asking for a high wage.”

    “Well,” the applicant replies, “the work is so much harder when you don’t know what you’re doing!”

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    www.fredkreger.com

     

    Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

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