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  • Inventory is finally up in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

    For the Week Ending July 13, 2018

     The Markets:

    The best way to describe investors this week is “fickle”. One day the sky is falling and there are great concerns about the impact of the tariffs and trade war and sell stocks. The next day, absolutely nothing has changed, and the market rally’s by over 200 points.

    What is very interesting to read about and watch on financial shows is how the so-called experts are attempting to predict the direction of the economy and the market using historical trends. Anyone paying attention will tell you that historical data and trends have never been less accurate in predicting future market behavior than in today’s economy. It is simply that traditional models no longer apply to today’s economy and investor mindset.

     

    Inflation:

    For the longest time the Fed was attempting to increase inflation to 2.0 percent per year. As the economy started heating up, the Fed was able to accomplish this goal, and has begun raising interest rates since last year. Some say the Fed has not done enough as the latest inflation rate is not moving higher than the 2.0% target.

     

    The latest reports on wholesale and retail prices shows inflation at the highest level in 6 years. The wholesale inflation rate leaped up to an annualized pace of 7.2%, and the prices on the consumer side jumped to 3.6%. This is sure to fire off the alarm bells at the Fed and make another interest rate increase a virtual guarantee at the next Fed meeting.

     

    Weekly Unemployment Data:

    Rates may be rising, a trade war maybe happening, but employment in the U.S. is setting records. With not only near record high employment in the U.S., first time jobless claims for the week of July 6th hit a 49-year low. Claims for the week declined by 18,000 down to 214,000.

     

    Mortgage Rates and Activity:

    The latest report from the Mortgage Bankers Association of American reported that applications for purchase loans increased 7.0 percent last week. Refinances declined by 4.0 percent.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday July 16th – Retail Sales
    • Tuesday July 17th – Home Builders Index, Industrial Production
    • Wednesday July 18th – Housing Starts
    • Thursday July 19th – First Time Jobless Claims
    • Friday July 20th – No Scheduled Reports

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Consumer prices barely rose in June, but the underlying trend points to inflation. Rising inflation will likely lead to more Fed rate increases and higher
    rates.
    Producer prices rose more than expected in June, another factor pointing to inflation. This jump was the largest annual increase in 6-1/2 years.
    Although trade war concerns have escalated, there’s not a lot of fear that this will hurt the economy. In the meantime, mortgage rates have remained stable.

     

    Homeowners have an estimated $5.8 trillion in accessible equity, the highest ever recorded. Despite this, fewer owners are taking cash out than in previous
    eras.
    Inventory remains tight, but could loosen up a bit in the near future. Inventory increased 12.2% in the 2nd quarter, the biggest gain since early 2015.
    Although refinance applications were down last week, purchase applications rose 7% for the week and were 8% higher than the same week a year ago.

    What does Jason Vorhees have for dessert on Friday the 13th?

    I-Scream.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

     

    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2018 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation (NMLS 1850). All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs
    shown do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Equal Housing Opportunity.

     

     

     

     

     

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  • Here’s Your Mid-Year Market Update

     

     

     Now that we’re more than half way through 2018, let’s take a quick look at the markets that often matter most to homeowners and home buyers.

     

    Housing Prices:

    • Started the year higher and have kept climbing in most areas.
    • Typically increasing at a somewhat slower pace than last year.
    • Driven upward by low inventory, high demand, and labor shortages for new construction.

     

    Mortgage Rates:
    • Have been rising thus far, yet have stabilized mid-year.
    • Face uncertain direction now because of tariffs and talks of trade wars.
    • Still very low by any historical measure and still aiding affordability.

     

    An important note on rates: The Federal Reserve Board has bumped up policy rates three times since last summer, with two more increases predicted for 2018. Policy rates do not directly influence mortgage rates, yet home loan rates typically follow overall rate trends over time.

     

    All in all, good opportunities still exist for homeowners and buyers. Rates are still historically low, though predicted to rise in the near future. The combination of increasing values and low inventory creates a strong market for sellers. While not as popular as in the recent past, refinancing opportunities are still available for owners who want to eliminate PMI or access equity for home improvements.

    I hope you have found this summary helpful. If you know someone who would benefit from the information, please feel free to forward it. If you want to explore any opportunities that may exist for you in your market, please reply to this email or give us a call. We’ll be happy to help.

     

    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

    T

     

     

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  • Lots of tariff talk in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

    For the Week Ending July 6, 2018

    The Markets:

    The threat of tariffs continues to weigh on the markets. Overall the indices for the week are down, however on Thursday the market rose despite that some tariffs may go into effect on Friday. The fear of price increases,
    if and when the U.S. is hit with reciprocal tariffs from other countries, continues to weigh on the minds of investors.

     

    Construction Spending:

    Construction spending data continues to be volatile, and that is likely not to change anytime soon. The good news is that the spending trend is up, which is a positive sign for the economy. Construction spending
    for May is 4.5% higher compared to a year ago. For the first five months of the year, it is 4.3% higher than the same period in 2017. Residential construction spending, meanwhile, was 0.8% higher in May following April’s strong increase.

     

    Mortgage Application Index:

    The Mortgage Bankers Association of America reported that overall loan application volume decreased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior week. Refinance applications decreased 2 percent, while
    applications for purchases increased 1 percent.

    Applications for refinances represent 37.2 percent of total applications. This is a slight decrease from the prior week’s 37.6 percent. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM’s) represent 6.7 percent of total applications.

     

    Manufacturing:

    Manufacturing continues to improve with the latest increase of 0.8 percentage points to 62.3%. New orders and employment for the sector were also quite strong in June, even thought it was slightly less than in May.
    The actual numbers were that new orders declined to 63.5% from 63.7%, One of the challenges to manufacturing is that although supplier deliveries rose to a 14-year high, this could lead to more bottlenecks in deliveries, that could very well cause an increase
    in inflation.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday July 9th – Consumer Credit
    • Tuesday July 10th – JOLTS Report
    • Wednesday July 11th – Producer Price Index, MBA Applications
    • Thursday July 12th – First Time Jobless Claims, Consumer Price Index
    • Friday July 13th – Consumer Sentiment

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Manufacturing activity surged in June, as companies accelerated production in advance of expected tariffs.
    Stocks continue to suffer as concerns remain about the effect of tariffs on trading. Apprehension about a trade war isn’t helping mortgage rates much either.
    The labor market appears to be near full strength, even as weekly jobless claims were up last week. The jobless rate is at an 18-year low of 3.8%.

     

    Overall construction spending was up 4.5% year-over-year in June and 0.4% over May. For residential construction, spending was up 0.8%.
    Single-family home construction spending was up 8.2% in June over the previous year. Multi-family housing spending was also up 4.2% year-over-year.
    Millennials really do want to be homeowners. In a recent survey, 36% of the 500 respondents reported taking a second job to save for a down payment.

    I used to be a mortgage banker, but then I lost interest.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

     

    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

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  • Trade concerns help rates in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending June 29, 2018

    The Markets:

    Another rough week for the stock market. Losses this week have been rough on investors, however the tide seems to have settled down. On Thursday the market stabilized with the DOW rising just under 100 points, with all other exchanges rising as well. The fear of a trade war has been the main driver behind investor concerns and has driven more funds out of the market and into bonds driving down yields and interest rates slightly.

     

    New Home Sales:

    New home sales rebounded in May with an increase of 6.7%. This is on the back of April’s downward revision. The current pace of new home sales for May is 14.1% higher than the same time in 2017. Overall, year to date sales for 2018 are 8.8% higher than last year. May’s pace of home sales is the second strongest report for the current housing cycle. Surprisingly, the median home price in May was 3.3% lower than a year ago, down to $313,000.

     

    Case-Shiller Corelogic Home Price Index:

    The latest Case-Shiller data shows home prices rose 0.3% which has overall prices up 6.4% so far this year. The pace of home price growth has slowed slightly for the 3-month period ending in April. Not surprising is that Seattle, San Francisco, and Las Vegas saw double-digit annual gains. For the month of April,10 of the cities in the Case-Shiller 20-city tracker were higher than their 2006 peaks, while the other half remained below.

     

    Pending Home Sales:

    Pending home sales dipped to a 4-month low due to the lack of supply. The National Association of Realtors reported Wednesday that sales declined 0.5%. It is very clear that current homeowners are staying where they are. Not only are homes that come on the market being sold fast, now we are seeing total supply shrinking even further than before.

    Adding to the market challenge is the realization that the spring market, which typically sees the most homes for sale, is now over. The likelihood of inventory growth in the coming months is extremely slim. The Midwest led the country with an increase in pending homes sales with a rise of 2.9%.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday July 2nd – ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending
    • Tuesday July 3rd – Factory Orders
    • Wednesday July 4th – Independence Holiday, All Markets Closed
    • Thursday July 5th – First Time Jobless Claims, ADP Employment Report, FOMC Minutes
    • Friday July 6th – National Employment Report

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Consumer confidence was down slightly in June, suggesting economic growth may temper a bit. Economists said trade dispute concerns were to blame.
    Some economists even think that escalation of trade tensions could tip the economy into recession. However, the Fed doesn’t seem too concerned yet.
    The economy did slow more than previously estimated in the 1st qtr. But growth appears to have accelerated again on the back of a strong labor market.

     

    New home sales climbed 6.7% in May, led by sales in the South. New home sales have risen 8.8% for the first 5 months of 2018.
    Home values continue to rise, but at a slightly slower pace than we’ve seen recently. In April, values tracked at 6.4% annually, down from 6.5% in March.
    Pending home sales slipped, falling for the 5th straight month in May. Tight inventory continues to get the blame.

    The early bird may get the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,

    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

     

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  • Trade concerns helping keep mortgage rates low in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

    For the Week Ending June 22, 2018

    The Markets:

    Investors do not like the increased banter and threats relating to tariffs and trade. The stock market has lost all the gains for 2018 and has even dropped into negative territory. The goal of all the tariff talk and actual implementation has been to bring countries to the negotiating table to create more balanced trade agreements for the United States, versus the current one-sided relationships that exist to the detriment of the country. Thus far the strategy is not working, however there is hope that smarter heads will prevail before this trade war creates global turmoil.

     

    Housing Starts:

    Housing starts for May roared to an 11-year high. At an annualized pace of 1.35 million, this is the fastest activity since 2007. The latest pace is 5% higher than April and a whopping 20.3% higher than the same time last year. Although permits were down 4.6 %, this decline pales in comparison to the incredible growth in construction that is happening. Housing starts for residential single-family homes rose to an annualized pace of 936,000, one of the highest numbers of the recent housing cycle.

     

    Existing Home Sales:

    Once again existing home sales are down, but not because of demand. Tight inventory continues to stifle the existing home market. Sales declined by 0.4% from April to May. This is the second straight month of declines as the supply continues to prevent would be buyer from getting that elusive accepted offer.

     

    Median home prices continue to rise. The latest data shows that home prices are rising at an annualized rate of 4.9%. First timers represent 31% of buyers, when historical norms are usually around 40%. Sales in the Northeast rose 4.6%, and this was the only region to show an increase.

     

    Mortgage Application Activity:

    The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that applications for home loans increased 5.1% from the prior week. Applications for purchase loans represent 4% of the increase. Refinances now account for 36.8 percent of mortgage loan activity.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday June 25th – New Home Sales
    • Tuesday June 26th – Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence
    • Wednesday June 27th – Pending Home Sales, MBA Mortgage Applications
    • Thursday June 28th – First Time Jobless Claims
    • Friday June 29th – Consumer Sentiment, Consumer Spending

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Tariffs imposed by President Trump have elicited retaliation from countries around the globe. Concerns about a trade war have helped mortgage rates.
    Fed Chair Powell recently confirmed the case for continuing to raise interest rates remains “strong.” He cited solid economic growth and full employment.
    Jobless claims have fallen for the 4th straight week. Employers are increasingly reporting labor shortages, which are likely to lead to wage growth and inflation.

     

    Home builders are excited by strong demand for housing. However, they are frustrated with labor shortages and rising costs for lumber.
    New housing starts surged to an 11-year high of 1.35 million in May. Both single-family and multi-family home construction increased.
    Existing home sales fell last month, as a shortage of properties pushed prices to a record high. At May’s sales pace, unsold inventory is at a 4.1-month supply.

    Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit; wisdom is not putting it in a fruit salad.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

     

    Sincerely,
    Fred  Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

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