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  • Honor, Courage and Passion to Serve – A NAMB Story

    In Andy Andrews’ novel, The Traveler’s Gift, a great paragraph struck me so profound that I wanted to write about it this month as it relates to NAMB and our members that we serve.

    “Every man (woman) of honor and courage will be faced with unjust criticism, but never forget that unjust criticism has no impact whatsoever upon that truth. And the only sure way to avoid criticism is to do nothing and be nothing.”

    This was a statement made in this fictional book by Abraham Lincoln in the story.  It may have been a fictional statement, but WOW does it leave an impact.

    So many times in my association career (CAMP and NAMB), I have written about the call to service.  I have looked backed and assessed THE WHY.  It can take so many forms for all of us of the “Why We Serve”; The Calling, The Ego, The Spiritual Reward.  No matter the motivation, it moves our association forward.

    This month’s message may sound like it’s from a book of the month club, but reading does inspire me and I hope it does the same for you. While listening to a great Podcast from Brian Buffini as he interviewed the author of Love is the Killer App by Tim Sanders, I was struck by his phrase “Passion of Service”.  We all have had this at one time or another.  We just need the right inspiration to evoke this passion.

    The reason why this is so poignant to me now, is that I am looking back at what WE have done to insure that NAMB and our State Associations are thriving.  I have to tell you….it’s been rough for all of us.  I know that we get distracted and sidelined from our commitment to service.  But I want all of you reading to take a minute and think about your own personal joy of service…taking an hour to be on a committee call or talking to a new potential member.  How did that make you feel?  Harness that feeling. Embrace that action that gave you that feeling.  Make it move you and your association forward.

    This industry has done so much for all of us to allow us financial freedom to buy our first house or have our kids go to college without loans.  Isn’t that a great reward for service?  I think so and I think that all of us need to do that “One More Thing” this year.  We all have some extra time; so squeeze out that time to have that passion for service.

    I’d like to leave you with an excerpt from Theodore Roosevelt’s speech “The Man in the Arena”… The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena… who spends himself in a worthy cause…so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.

    Thank you and Namaste’

    Fred Kreger, CMC

     

    Fred Kreger is the Vice President of Enterprise Retail Production at American Pacific Mortgage.  He is currently the President for NAMB, the Association of Mortgage Professionals and Past President for the California Association of Mortgage Professionals (CAMP) and He can be contacted at fred.kreger@apmortgage.com or (661) 400-8905.

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  • Tight inventory remains an issue in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending June 30, 2017

    Case-Shiller’s Home Price Index

    In recent weeks, I have been mentioning how the Summer and Fall housing markets are being predicted, by some experts, to be far above average. We should hope they are correct on account that the early Spring market
    was a rather large disappointment.

     

    The latest Case-Shiller’s home price index increased by a rather small 0.3 percent in April. In February home prices were up by 6.0 percent from the same time in the prior year. However, for the month of March, the
    year-on-year rate slipped back down to 5.7 percent. This is the first reversal in year-on-year spread in a very long time,

     

    To the surprise of many, San Francisco home prices dropped 0.6 percent in the month. Boston was down by 0.7 percent and Cleveland declined by 1.0 percent. Not surprising is Seattle leading the country with a year-on-year
    spread up by 12.9 percent.

    Mortgage Bankers Association Loan Application Weekly Data

     

    For the week ending June 23rd, purchase applications for home mortgages dropped by a seasonally adjusted 4 percent. The unadjusted level is actually 8 percent higher than the level in the same week a year ago. Refinancing
    plummeted 9 percent from the prior week, with the refinance share of mortgage activity declining to 45.6 percent of all originations. (Many readers have asked me what “seasonally adjusted” data means?)

     

    Because seasons can impact sales from one extreme to another, making seasonal adjustments to data demonstrates a more consistent approach to viewing data. Seasonal spikes, (for example more running shoes will be
    sold in the summer than winter) can make it harder to see trends in a market segment versus removing the seasonality levels from the data therefore making it easier to compare from year to year.

     

    Pending Home Sales

    Even Pending homes sales for the month. May was the 3rd month in a row of decline with a jaw dropping 0.8 percent. This is in direct contrast to expert predictions of a 0.5 percent gain. The weakness in the housing
    market is spread evenly throughout regions across the country. The West, usually the strongest market, declined by 1.3 percent, which was the largest decline recorded for the month. Although the data on final home sales does not always move in lock-step with
    the pending home sales data, this most recent report could prove troubling for future final sales data.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday July 3rd – ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending
    • Tuesday July 4th – Independence Day Celebration – All Markets Closed
    • Wednesday July 5th – MBA Mortgage Applications, Factory Orders, FOMC Minutes
    • Thursday July 6th – First Time Jobless Claims, ADP Employment Report
    • Friday July 7th – National Employment Situation

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way
    I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Four out of five major global central banks are talking about tightening policy, including raising rates. Market reaction to the news could pressure rates
    higher.
    Comments this week by Fed members, including Fed Chair Janet Yellen, have investors speculating that another Fed rate increase is likely this year.
    First quarter GDP growth was revised higher in May, signaling a growing economy. Higher consumer spending also provided an improved outlook.

     

    Home prices were up 5.5% year-over-year in April. Seattle, Portland, and Dallas reported the highest year-over-year gains, according to Case-Shiller.
    Pending home sales were down again in May, as tight inventory continues to be an issue. Buyer interest remains solid even with fewer choices on the market.
    Although inventory has declined month-over-month for 2 years, there may be hope. NAR found that 71% of homeowners think now is a good time to sell.

    Homebuyer Tip: When negotiating an apartment purchase, remember to ask your agent if the listing price is the “condo-minimum” offer
    the seller is willing to take.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,

    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

     

     

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  • Inflation is low and prices are high in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending June 23, 2017

    After recent reports on housing that have been less than stellar, this week’s reports show that the tide may be turning. From home prices, to existing sales, to loan applications for purchases, things seem to be
    improving.

     

    May’s existing homes sales report showed a very solid increase of 1.1 percent. This is a complete turnaround from the prior months decline of 2.5 percent. Single-family sales increased by 1.0 percent to an annual
    rate of 4.980 million. Condo sales also increased by 1.6 percent to a 640,000 rate.

     

    Another positive in the housing report is the significant increase in supply. With prices moving higher, more homes are coming into the market. As I mentioned last week, homeowners are finally recognizing the increase
    in their home value creating the desire to cash out by selling. Inventory increased from 1.960 million from 1.920 million in April and 1.800 million in March. Sales have been increasing each month as well which reinforces the fact that there is a ton of pent
    up demand.

     

    The West remains super-hot with sales up by 3.4 percent for the month of May. They are also higher by 3.4 percent from the same time last year. The South had the second strongest increase by percentage with an rise
    of 2.2 percent for the month. The region is higher than the same time last year by 4.5 percent. The Northeast, which had been lagging, is showing life for the first time in a long time with sales up 6.8 percent. The Midwest continues to struggle with being
    the only negative sales market with a decline of 5.9 percent.

    Although the year started out strong but then mostly slowed during the Spring selling season, life seems to be returning to the housing market now. As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, there are some experts talking
    about the late summer and fall real estate market being far stronger than normal.

     

    Home prices also jumped according the Federal Housing Finance Agency. April home prices rose 0.7 percent. March was also revised upward to reflect a 0.7 percent increase. The year-on-year rate is up 4 tenths to 6.8
    percent which is the best showing in 3 years.

    The Mountain region continues to be the strongest market with home prices being 8.9 percent higher than the same time last year. The South is the second strongest market for home values rising with an increase of
    8.0 percent. The Pacific, which has always seemed to be leading the way, dropped into 3rd place with a still very respectable increase of 7.5 percent.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday June 26th – Durable Goods Orders
    • Tuesday June 27th – Case-Shiller HPI, Consumer Confidence
    • Wednesday June 28th – MBA Mortgage Applications, Pending Home Sales
    • Thursday June 29th – First Time Jobless Claims, GDP
    • Friday June 30th – Personal Income and Outlays

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Crude oil prices have plummeted this week, which helps to curb inflation concerns. A lack of inflation helps keep mortgage rates low.
    Although the economic outlook continues to improve, consumers are showing signs of declining confidence in their personal finances and may spend less.
    Jobless claims were up slightly this week, hitting 241,000. In a sign of labor market strength though, this is the 120th week claims were below 300,000.

     

    Nationwide, properties stayed on the market for a median of just 27 days in May. This was the shortest timeframe since NAR began tracking the data in 2011.
    Existing home sales rose 1.1% month-over-month in May to 5.62 million. Existing home sales are now 2.7% higher than a year ago.
    Inventory shortages continue to push home prices to new highs. The median existing home price was $252,800 in May, passing last June’s peak of $247,600.

    The older generation’s dream was to pay off the mortgage. The younger generation’s dream is to qualify for one.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

     

    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

     

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  • Fed raises rates but mortgage rates remain low in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending June 16, 2017

    I remember a time that the stock market would go wild in the days leading up to a Fed announcement about interest rates. This week at the FOMC
    meeting, the Fed raised interest rates by ¼ percent. The announcement came out on Wednesday

    afternoon at 3:15PM, and investors reacted with little more than a yawn. The stock market ticked up about 80 points in the last 45 minutes of
    the trading day. By historical standards over the last 2 years, this movement in the market was equivalent to virtually no reaction. The interest rate increase by the Fed was expected by investors. The Fed has indicated that based upon current economic conditions
    and growth patterns, one additional rate increase is anticipated before the end of 2017.

     

    The first half of 2017 the housing market has been very active. Recent surveys of real estate and mortgage professionals around the country has indicated, that in many parts of the country, the typical summer slow-down
    might be taking hold. The housing market remains quite active however activity has seemed to tail off slightly in many areas.

    Builder sentiment reflects the recent slight slowdown in activity. The latest housing market index, which measures builder optimism, showed a slight drop from 69 to 67. Overall the index remains very strong so by
    no means is this slight drop indicative of future problems for housing. In fact, the housing market index for future sales rose to an unusually high level of 76.

     

    There have been more and more articles in recent weeks in which housing experts are discussing the possibility of an abnormally active Fall market. It appears that homeowners are recognizing the growth in their home
    equity that has taken place in the last 24 months. Some homeowners are beginning to believe that it might be time to “take the money and run”.

     

    In many markets around the country, more homes have come up for sale in the last 30 days. This has not necessarily translated into more inventory as homes are still selling as fast as they are listed because of all
    the pent-up demand. An increase in home listing in the month of June is NOT a common occurrence. Typically, new listings tend to decline in the summer months as schools let out and more families take their summer vacations.

     

    Mortgage rates decline, and refinance applications tick up. For the week ending June 9th, applications for refinancing jumped 9.0 percent according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications declined
    by a seasonally adjusted 3.0 percent. The Memorial Day Holiday likely played a role in the slight drop for the week.

     

    Next week there are very few reports that might influence investor decisions. Expect the stock market to remain relatively flat unless some geopolitical events impact the United States. Next week’s potential market
    moving reports are:

    • Wednesday June 21st – MBA Mortgage Applications, Existing Home Sales
    • Thursday June 22nd – First Time Jobless Claims, FHFA House Price Index
    • Friday June 23rd – New Home Sales

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way
    I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    The Fed raised policy rates by 0.25% as expected at this week’s FOMC meeting. However, the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, which actually improved slightly.
    Inflation rates released this week came in below the expected level. Low inflation helps provide an environment for mortgage rates to remain low as well.
    12 of 16 Fed members signaled they expect to increase rates at least once more this year. Markets have been slow to react to the news though.

     

    The number of homes on the market in May fell 10.9% year-over-year, marking 20 straight months of year-over-year declines. However, sales increased 7.5%.
    The typical home is currently under contract after an average of 37 days. More than a quarter of homes listed are selling for more than the asking price.
    Rising prices are bringing out home flippers again. More than 2/3 of the 44k single family homes flipped in the 1st quarter were by mom-and-pop investors.

    Seller to Agent: You’ve done such a great job describing my house in your real estate listing that I’ve decided to keep it!

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,

    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

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  • Find out why a Fed rate hike next week doesn’t necessarily mean higher mortgage rates in Markets in a Minute!

     

    For the Week Ending June 9, 2017

    The stock market couldn’t be flatter through the first four trading days of the week. The Dow began the week at 21,183, and closed at 21,182 yesterday. There have been some momentary jumps up and down during the
    week, but overall, investors seem to be sitting on the sidelines watching and waiting. There has, for the most part, been no economic data that gives them reason to think the market will improve or decline driving them to make a trading decision. It seems
    for now, until something comes out that creates an opportunity or urgency to trade, investors are going to hang back and observe.

     

    Could even more life be coming back into the housing market? That is the question many are asking based upon the Mortgage Bankers Association latest loan application report. For the week ending June 2nd, purchase
    applications jumped a seasonally adjusted 10.0 percent. This is the highest level of purchase loan activity since May of 2010. This jump follows 3 weeks of consecutive declines. Refinance applications also moved higher by 3.0 percent. Overall purchase loan
    activity is up a healthy 6.0 percent from the same time last year.

     

    The first-time jobless claim numbers seem to just be staying put at a very low level. The latest report for claims was at 245,000. This is down by 3,000 from the prior week. Overall claims have been remaining in
    a very narrow range in the mid 200’s for months, and there appears to be no sign that this will change any time soon.

     

    The latest JOLTS Report, (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Report), shows that job availability continues to greatly outpace hiring. There were an estimated 1 million more jobs available than positions filled in the
    month of April. Employers contend they are struggling to find employees with the jobs skills that meet the positions they have available.

    The ISM non-manufacturing index came in just about as expected. At a level of 56.9, this is considered a very solid rate of growth that shows business activity remains strong. Hiring in this sector has grown as there
    appears to be backlogs of delivery of services. Companies are scrambling to meet customer demand and are working hard to try and fill vacant positions to meet demand.

     

    Finally, are consumers becoming more adverse to borrowing? The latest April data on credit growth shows that consumers seem to be borrowing less. Non-revolving debt which rose 6.7 billion, is the lowest reading in
    nearly 6 years. Even though this includes vehicle financing and student loans, historically the amount of money being currently borrowed is very low.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports:

    • Monday June 12th – 10 Year Note Auction
    • Tuesday June 13th – FOMC Meeting Begins, Producer Price Index
    • Wednesday June 14th – MBA Mortgage Applications, CPI, FOMC Announcement
    • Thursday June 15th – First Time Jobless Claims, Housing Market Index
    • Friday June 16th – Housing Starts

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    The labor market continues to show strength, with this week’s jobless claims below the 300,000 threshold for the 118th straight week and unemployment at 4.3%.
    Recent data indicates that inflation is still below the Fed target of 2%, coming in at 1.5% in April. The Fed is expected to raise policy rates next week
    regardless.
    Although a Fed policy rate increase next week is likely, that won’t necessarily drive mortgage rates higher. The Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates directly.

     

    Home prices continue to soar, with low inventory causing bidding frenzies in some metro areas. Home-price growth is currently even outpacing rent gains.
    According to NAR, 47% of consumers said it was a good time to buy a home, and 39% said it was a good time to sell. Both figures are up from a year ago.
    Fannie Mae will ease income requirements in July, paving the way for more new buyers to qualify. Millennials with student debt are expected to benefit most.

    A banker, an accountant and a real estate agent all become homeless and decide to live under a bridge.
    The banker finds a cardboard box and moves into it.
    The accountant finds a cardboard box, puts it next to the banker and crawls into it.
    The real estate agent finds a cardboard box and puts it on top of the banker’s and accountant’s boxes. He then slaps a poster on it reading:
    “Penthouse available in new development for professionals.”

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,

    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

     

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