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  • New record for median priced homes in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

     

    For the Week Ending August 10, 2018

    Home Prices:

    Despite all the talk of home prices stalling, June showed an increase of 6.8% compared to a year ago according to Corelogic’s Home Price Index. This is the fastest annual pace of price increase since May of 2014. This also marks the 14th-consecutive month in which home prices remained steady or increased. This is creating a significant challenge to home affordability, especially for first time buyers.

     

    Job Openings:

    It is common knowledge that the job market is super-hot. Employers are struggling to find qualified people to fill all of the open positions in the market. The Labor Department reported that at the end of June, there were 6.66 million job openings, which is up slightly from May’s numbers, and the third highest in history.

     

    Inflation:

    In a surprise turnaround, prices on the wholesale level were flat in the month of July from the prior month. Experts were expecting prices to increase by 0.2%. The core rate of inflation, which removes volatile food and energy prices, showed an increase of 0.3%. The potential slowing of inflation, if it continues, could impact the Fed’s next decision to raise interest rates.

     

    First Time Jobless Claims:

    Initial claims for the week ending August 3rd declined by 6,000 down to 213,000. The rate of claims is once again returning to near record lows. The low level of claims, combined with the high number of job openings, makes it very likely that the job market will remain robust for the foreseeable future.

     

    Mortgage Application Activity:

    The latest report from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed July applications for home purchases increased 3.6 percent from the same period in 2017. Compared to June of 2018, applications increased by 0.2 percent.

     

    It appears as of late that more housing inventory is becoming available, which should likely lead to an increase in purchase and mortgage loan activity in the next report.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday August 13th – Survey of Consumer Expectations
    • Wednesday August 15th – Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Home Builder’s Index
    • Thursday August 16th – First Time Jobless Claims, Housing Starts
    • Friday August 17th – Consumer Sentiment

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Although last week’s jobs numbers were lower than expected, employment remains strong. Unemployment claims this week unexpectedly fell to 213,000.
    The strong labor market and robust economy are pushing up inflation, which could pressure rates higher. Import duties are also boosting price pressures.
    Inflation and strong labor market data have economists forecasting the Fed will raise rates twice more in 2018. Mortgage rates have already factored this
    in.

     

    According to NAR, the median price for a single-family home nationwide is at a record $296,000. That’s an increase of 5.3% year-over-year.
    Weekly mortgage application numbers were down 3% from the previous week. The drop is being blamed on tight inventory and rising home prices.
    CoreLogic’s Home Price Index shows home prices rose by 0.7% in June over May. CoreLogic forecasts prices will increase 5.1% in the year going forward.

    A committee is a group of people who individually can do nothing, but as a group decide that nothing can be done.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,

    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

    ©2018 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation (NMLS 1850). All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs
    shown do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Equal Housing Opportunity.

     

     

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  • Job Report Friday and Fed keeps rates unchanged in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending August 3, 2018

    The economy added 157,000 jobs in July, the Labor Department reported today, a sharp downturn from 248,000 in June.

    Average hourly private-sector earnings were up 2.7 percent over the previous year, unchanged from June. The unemployment rate was 3.9 percent, down from 4 percent in June.

    Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted the creation of 190,000 jobs.

     

    The Markets:

    This week investors have been struggling to latch on to any news, positive or negative, to make significant investment decisions. The biggest pressure on the market is President Trump’s desire to increase the tariffs on Chinese goods by another 200 billion dollars. Although most investors and experts don’t believe this will happen, the thought of it is certainly raising eyebrows.

     

    Pending Home Sales:

    There is a mixed message relating to the latest pending home sales data. For the month of June sales rose 0.9% according to the National Association of Realtors®. As much as pending sales are higher, they still trail last year’s numbers for the same time-period by 2.5%.

     

    Demand for homes continues to far outweigh available homes for sale, essentially strangling the market. Inventory continues to shrink, and the expectation is that sales in the coming months will decline. The media keeps reporting that the housing market appears to be slowing, but they are creating the illusion that demand is decreasing. Reality is that nothing could be further from the truth.

     

    Demand remains very strong. The challenge is that existing homeowners are just not selling. There is hope that once summer finishes, many of the homeowners who have been sitting on the fence about selling, will pull the trigger and begin increasing available inventory.

     

    Case-Shiller Home Price Index:

    Home prices continue to remain strong, even though the rate of increase is slowing. Demand remains quite robust, it is just that prices have risen so fast, that some buyers are either getting priced out of the market, or simply taking a breather from purchasing due to competition for offer acceptance.

     

    The latest data that runs through May, shows prices rose 0.4% from the prior month. Overall prices are 6.5% higher than the same time last year. Home prices continue to rise much faster than the paces of inflation and wage growth. The three cities with double digit price appreciation, to no surprise, were Las Vegas, San Francisco, and Seattle. Even New York, which had been showing prices declining in previous months, were flat in May.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday August 6th – Survey of Consumer Expectations
    • Tuesday August 7th – Job Openings, Consumer Credit
    • Wednesday August 8th – No Reports
    • Thursday August 9th – First Time Jobless Claims, Producer Price Index
    • Friday August 10th – Consumer Price Index

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    The Fed elected to leave policy rates unchanged at this month’s meeting, as was expected. Markets have already priced in 2 more rate hikes this year though.
    Consumer spending increased solidly in June, helping drive the economy. Inflation also rose moderately, which could pressure rates higher in the future.
    Although the labor market continues to show strength, the construction industry is struggling with labor shortages. Young job seekers just don’t seem interested.

     

    Home prices were up 6.4% for the year in May, supported by low rates and tight inventory. The pace of price increases is showing signs of slowing.
    Pending home sales were down in June from the previous year as inventory continues to be an issue. However, sales were up 0.9% compared to May.
    Construction spending recorded its biggest drop in more than a year in June. Homebuilding has been slowing due to rising material costs and labor shortages.

    Anyone hiring? I had to quit my job as a can crusher… it was just soda pressing. 

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

    Sincerely,

    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2018 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation (NMLS 1850). All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Equal Housing Opportunity.

     

     

     

     

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  • Demand is high but inventory remains low in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

     

    For the Week Ending July 27, 2018

    The Markets:

    The stock market continues to maintain its upward momentum. It seems that concerns over tariffs are taking a back seat to the numerous positive earnings reports coming out this month. Additionally, President Trump appears to be working with Europe to head off a trade war, and there seems to be progress.

     

    Existing Home Sales:

    Existing home sales slid for the third-straight month to the lowest level in 5 months. However, the home sales challenges continue to be driven by limited inventory, not a lack of demand. Buyers seeking to purchase a home remains very high, even though bidding wars are occurring on most houses as soon as they hit the market.

     

    The median price for existing homes has hit an all-time high at $276,900, which is 5.2% higher than a year ago. First -timers represented 31% of all transactions in the month of June, which has remained consistent since the start of the housing recovery. Total housing inventory increased in June by 4.3%, however it remains 40% below pre-housing crisis levels.

     

    New Home Sales:

    Sales in this sector of the market have also declined, but not for the same reasons as existing home sales. Many experts believe that this area of the market may be starting to become more “normalized”. What exactly that means I am not sure because we have not seen a normal balanced market in well over 15 years. We have gone from high demand, to a crash, back to high demand. “Normalized” is a word that has been rarely used to describe anything related to housing in a
    very long time.

     

    Weekly Jobless Claims:

    The latest report on unemployment showed an uptick of 9,000 first time jobless claims. This was not unexpected after last week’s claims hit a 48-year low. There were no special factors attributing to the increase other than in the summer months, it is not un-common for employment figures to move like this.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday July 30th – Pending Home Sales
    • Tuesday July 31st – Case-Shiller Home Price Index
    • Wednesday August 1st – ADP Employment Report, Construction Spending
    • Thursday August 2nd – First Time Jobless Claims, Factory Orders
    • Friday August 3rd – National Unemployment Rate

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Talk of tariffs and trade concerns continue to help keep mortgage rates low. However, the strong economy and labor market could pressure rates higher.
    Recent comments by President Trump about raising rates are not likely to affect the Fed’s plans. One or even two policy rate increases are still expected
    for 2018.
    The European Central Bank is seeing inflation increase overseas and should end economic stimulus this year. This could pressure future mortgage rates higher.

     

    Existing home sales continued to slide in June, to a 5-month low. A persistent shortage of properties on the market drove house prices to a record high.
    New home sales also dropped to an 8-month low in June. Demand remains high, but builders are struggling with labor shortages and material costs.
    Fifteen more states can now accommodate fully digital home closings. A total of 265 million homebuyers can now enjoy fully online closing processes across
    the country.

    I have a few jokes about being unemployed, but it doesn’t matter because none of them work.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

     

    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2018 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation (NMLS 1850). All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs
    shown do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Equal Housing Opportunity.

     

     

     

     

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  • Inventory is finally up in this week’s Markets in a Minute!

     

    For the Week Ending July 13, 2018

     The Markets:

    The best way to describe investors this week is “fickle”. One day the sky is falling and there are great concerns about the impact of the tariffs and trade war and sell stocks. The next day, absolutely nothing has changed, and the market rally’s by over 200 points.

    What is very interesting to read about and watch on financial shows is how the so-called experts are attempting to predict the direction of the economy and the market using historical trends. Anyone paying attention will tell you that historical data and trends have never been less accurate in predicting future market behavior than in today’s economy. It is simply that traditional models no longer apply to today’s economy and investor mindset.

     

    Inflation:

    For the longest time the Fed was attempting to increase inflation to 2.0 percent per year. As the economy started heating up, the Fed was able to accomplish this goal, and has begun raising interest rates since last year. Some say the Fed has not done enough as the latest inflation rate is not moving higher than the 2.0% target.

     

    The latest reports on wholesale and retail prices shows inflation at the highest level in 6 years. The wholesale inflation rate leaped up to an annualized pace of 7.2%, and the prices on the consumer side jumped to 3.6%. This is sure to fire off the alarm bells at the Fed and make another interest rate increase a virtual guarantee at the next Fed meeting.

     

    Weekly Unemployment Data:

    Rates may be rising, a trade war maybe happening, but employment in the U.S. is setting records. With not only near record high employment in the U.S., first time jobless claims for the week of July 6th hit a 49-year low. Claims for the week declined by 18,000 down to 214,000.

     

    Mortgage Rates and Activity:

    The latest report from the Mortgage Bankers Association of American reported that applications for purchase loans increased 7.0 percent last week. Refinances declined by 4.0 percent.

     

    Next week’s potential market moving reports are:

    • Monday July 16th – Retail Sales
    • Tuesday July 17th – Home Builders Index, Industrial Production
    • Wednesday July 18th – Housing Starts
    • Thursday July 19th – First Time Jobless Claims
    • Friday July 20th – No Scheduled Reports

     

    As your mortgage and real estate professional, I am happy to assist you with any information you may need regarding mortgage or real estate trends. I welcome the opportunity to serve you in any way I possibly can.

     

    Please enjoy this quick update on what happened this week in the housing and financial markets.

     

     

    Consumer prices barely rose in June, but the underlying trend points to inflation. Rising inflation will likely lead to more Fed rate increases and higher
    rates.
    Producer prices rose more than expected in June, another factor pointing to inflation. This jump was the largest annual increase in 6-1/2 years.
    Although trade war concerns have escalated, there’s not a lot of fear that this will hurt the economy. In the meantime, mortgage rates have remained stable.

     

    Homeowners have an estimated $5.8 trillion in accessible equity, the highest ever recorded. Despite this, fewer owners are taking cash out than in previous
    eras.
    Inventory remains tight, but could loosen up a bit in the near future. Inventory increased 12.2% in the 2nd quarter, the biggest gain since early 2015.
    Although refinance applications were down last week, purchase applications rose 7% for the week and were 8% higher than the same week a year ago.

    What does Jason Vorhees have for dessert on Friday the 13th?

    I-Scream.

     

    Rate movements and volatility are based on published, aggregate national averages and measured from the previous to the most recent midweek daily reporting period. These
    rate trends can differ from our own and are subject to change at any time.

     

    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

     

    ©2018 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation (NMLS 1850). All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs
    shown do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Equal Housing Opportunity.

     

     

     

     

     

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  • Here’s Your Mid-Year Market Update

     

     

     Now that we’re more than half way through 2018, let’s take a quick look at the markets that often matter most to homeowners and home buyers.

     

    Housing Prices:

    • Started the year higher and have kept climbing in most areas.
    • Typically increasing at a somewhat slower pace than last year.
    • Driven upward by low inventory, high demand, and labor shortages for new construction.

     

    Mortgage Rates:
    • Have been rising thus far, yet have stabilized mid-year.
    • Face uncertain direction now because of tariffs and talks of trade wars.
    • Still very low by any historical measure and still aiding affordability.

     

    An important note on rates: The Federal Reserve Board has bumped up policy rates three times since last summer, with two more increases predicted for 2018. Policy rates do not directly influence mortgage rates, yet home loan rates typically follow overall rate trends over time.

     

    All in all, good opportunities still exist for homeowners and buyers. Rates are still historically low, though predicted to rise in the near future. The combination of increasing values and low inventory creates a strong market for sellers. While not as popular as in the recent past, refinancing opportunities are still available for owners who want to eliminate PMI or access equity for home improvements.

    I hope you have found this summary helpful. If you know someone who would benefit from the information, please feel free to forward it. If you want to explore any opportunities that may exist for you in your market, please reply to this email or give us a call. We’ll be happy to help.

     

    Sincerely,
    Fred Kreger
    American Family Funding
    Certified Mortgage Consultant
    NLMS # 1850 / 214640 BRE# 01215943 / 01371184
    (661) 505-4311
    Fred.Kreger@affloans.com
    28368 Constellation Road
    Suite 398
    Santa Clarita, CA
    91355

    www.fredkreger.com

    ©2017 American Pacific Mortgage Corporation. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and, while every effort has been made to insure accuracy, no guarantee is expressed or implied. Any programs shown
    do not demonstrate all options or pricing structures. Rates, terms, programs and underwriting policies subject to change without notice. This is not an offer to extend credit or a commitment to lend. All loans subject to underwriting approval. Some products
    may not be available in all states and restrictions apply. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the CRMLA.

     

     

    T

     

     

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